[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":480},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-/openai-financials-leak-2025":3,"all-pages-for-dir":478,"og-image-/openai-financials-leak-2025":479},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":457,"description":458,"extension":459,"meta":460,"navigation":461,"ogImage":462,"path":463,"project_name":464,"published":465,"publishedAt":466,"seo":467,"stem":468,"tags":469,"todo":462,"unpublished":465,"updatedAt":462,"__hash__":477},"pages/2026-06/2026-06-19/openai-financials-leak-2025.md","OpenAI 2025年財務リーク — 売上$13B / 営業損失$21B / 純損失$38.5B、その「公式性」を検証する",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":446},"minimark",[9,14,28,33,105,116,119,122,125,164,168,171,225,243,247,334,341,345,367,381,385,398,401,404],[10,11,13],"h1",{"id":12},"openai-2025年財務リーク-公式性の検証と数字の整理","OpenAI 2025年財務リーク — 「公式性」の検証と数字の整理",[15,16,17,18,27],"p",{},"独立系ジャーナリスト Ed Zitron（Where's Your Ed At）が2026年6月16日に公開した ",[19,20,26],"a",{"href":21,"target":22,"rel":23},"https://www.wheresyoured.at/exclusive-openai-financials/","_blank",[24,25],"noopener","noreferrer","OpenAI の2025年監査済み財務諸表のリーク記事","について、「これは本当に確かな情報か」「米国の公的書類で裏が取れるか」を整理する。",[29,30,32],"h2",{"id":31},"結論信頼度は高いただし-edgar-ではまだ確認できない","結論：信頼度は高い。ただし EDGAR では「まだ」確認できない",[34,35,36,49],"table",{},[37,38,39],"thead",{},[40,41,42,46],"tr",{},[43,44,45],"th",{},"確認の入口",[43,47,48],{},"状況",[50,51,52,65,76,84,97],"tbody",{},[40,53,54,58],{},[55,56,57],"td",{},"OpenAI は上場企業か",[55,59,60,64],{},[61,62,63],"strong",{},"非上場","。公開財務諸表の提出義務なし",[40,66,67,70],{},[55,68,69],{},"SEC 提出書類（EDGAR）",[55,71,72,75],{},[61,73,74],{},"2026-06-08 に機密扱い S-1 ドラフトを提出済み","（IPO 準備）。confidential filing のため EDGAR では一般閲覧不可",[40,77,78,81],{},[55,79,80],{},"Zitron が見た文書",[55,82,83],{},"本人主張「監査済み財務諸表」（\"audited financial documents viewed by this publication\"）",[40,85,86,89],{},[55,87,88],{},"独立検証",[55,90,91,96],{},[19,92,95],{"href":93,"target":22,"rel":94},"https://fortune.com/2026/06/16/openai-financials-leaked-losses-revenue-profit/",[24,25],"Financial Times が同一文書を独立検証","。Fortune・Quartz・Motley Fool 等のメジャー紙が同じ数字で追随報道",[40,98,99,102],{},[55,100,101],{},"一次資料へのアクセス",[55,103,104],{},"現時点では Zitron / FT が握っている。S-1 が正式公開（IPO 直前）されれば EDGAR で誰でも確認可能になる",[15,106,107,108,111,112,115],{},"つまり「",[61,109,110],{},"米国の公式ドキュメントで誰でも確認できる状態ではない","」が、「",[61,113,114],{},"監査済み資料に基づき FT が裏取りした数字","」というレイヤーの情報。報道経由の信頼度としては相当に高い部類で、複数メジャー紙が同じ数字を採用しているのは、各社が独自に文書または事情通からのクロスチェックを取った結果と読める。",[29,117,118],{"id":118},"リーク数字をウォーターフォールで見る",[120,121],"openai-financials-waterfall-chart",{},[15,123,124],{},"ウォーターフォールから読み取れること：",[126,127,128,143,154],"ul",{},[129,130,131,134,135,142],"li",{},[61,132,133],{},"R&D 単独で売上を上回る","（",[136,137,141],"code",{"className":138},[139,140],"language-math","math-inline","19.18B vs ","13.07B）。研究開発投資が「売上を全部突っ込んでなお足りない」水準",[129,144,145,153],{},[61,146,147,148,152],{},"営業損失 ",[136,149,151],{"className":150},[139,140],"20.93B のうち COGS ","6.05B と R&D $10.59B は Microsoft 経由","（Azure compute と OpenAI モデルの相互利用に伴う取引）",[129,155,156,159,160,163],{},[61,157,158],{},"営業損失と純損失の差 $17.58B"," は、営利→非営利への組織変換に伴う",[61,161,162],{},"転換社債・ワラントの公正価値変動","。会計上の非現金損失で、キャッシュアウトではないが希薄化の実態を映している",[29,165,167],{"id":166},"microsoft-への支払い構造172b-年","Microsoft への支払い構造（$17.2B / 年）",[15,169,170],{},"報道された Microsoft 関連支出の内訳：",[34,172,173,183],{},[37,174,175],{},[40,176,177,180],{},[43,178,179],{},"区分",[43,181,182],{},"金額",[50,184,185,195,205,213],{},[40,186,187,190],{},[55,188,189],{},"R&D（うち Azure compute 等）",[55,191,192],{},[61,193,194],{},"$10.59B",[40,196,197,200],{},[55,198,199],{},"Cost of revenue（推論コスト等）",[55,201,202],{},[61,203,204],{},"$6.05B",[40,206,207,210],{},[55,208,209],{},"その他（S&M・G&A 含む）",[55,211,212],{},"残差",[40,214,215,220],{},[55,216,217],{},[61,218,219],{},"Microsoft への合計支払額",[55,221,222],{},[61,223,224],{},"約 $17.2B",[15,226,227,228,232,233,236,237,242],{},"売上 ",[136,229,231],{"className":230},[139,140],"13.07B に対して Microsoft 一社への支払いが ","17.2B。",[61,234,235],{},"売上を全額 Microsoft に渡してもまだ足りない","規模で、OpenAI のインフラ依存と利益構造の脆さがそのまま出ている。",[19,238,241],{"href":239,"target":22,"rel":240},"https://www.theregister.com/2025/11/12/openai_spending_report/",[24,25],"The Register の関連分析","もこの依存構造を以前から指摘していた。",[29,244,246],{"id":245},"_2024-2025-売上-35倍純損失-76倍","2024 → 2025 — 売上 3.5倍、純損失 7.6倍",[34,248,249,266],{},[37,250,251],{},[40,252,253,256,260,263],{},[43,254,255],{},"項目",[43,257,259],{"align":258},"right","2024",[43,261,262],{"align":258},"2025",[43,264,265],{"align":258},"倍率",[50,267,268,284,300,316],{},[40,269,270,273,276,281],{},[55,271,272],{},"売上",[55,274,275],{"align":258},"$3.70B",[55,277,278],{"align":258},[61,279,280],{},"$13.07B",[55,282,283],{"align":258},"3.5x",[40,285,286,289,292,297],{},[55,287,288],{},"総コスト",[55,290,291],{"align":258},"$12.48B",[55,293,294],{"align":258},[61,295,296],{},"$34.00B",[55,298,299],{"align":258},"2.7x",[40,301,302,305,308,313],{},[55,303,304],{},"営業損失",[55,306,307],{"align":258},"-$8.78B",[55,309,310],{"align":258},[61,311,312],{},"-$20.92B",[55,314,315],{"align":258},"2.4x",[40,317,318,321,324,329],{},[55,319,320],{},"純損失",[55,322,323],{"align":258},"-$5.09B",[55,325,326],{"align":258},[61,327,328],{},"-$38.50B",[55,330,331],{"align":258},[61,332,333],{},"7.6x",[15,335,336,337,340],{},"純損失が突出して伸びているのは、前述の組織変換に伴う",[61,338,339],{},"公正価値変動による会計損失","が乗ったため。営業段階だけ見ても損失幅は 2.4 倍に拡大しており、ChatGPT の収益化を加速しても compute コストの伸びがそれを上回っている構図は変わっていない。",[29,342,344],{"id":343},"ipo-への含意","IPO への含意",[126,346,347,355,361],{},[129,348,349,350],{},"主幹事は ",[19,351,354],{"href":352,"target":22,"rel":353},"https://qz.com/openai-leaked-financials-losses-revenue-ipo-061626",[24,25],"Goldman Sachs と Morgan Stanley",[129,356,357,358],{},"想定評価額は最大 ",[61,359,360],{},"$1兆 (1T)",[129,362,363,364],{},"上場ターゲットは ",[61,365,366],{},"2026年9月以降",[15,368,369,370,374,375,380],{},"純損失 ",[136,371,373],{"className":372},[139,140],"38.5B の決算をどう資本市場に説明するかが論点になる。FV 変動 ","17.6B を「非現金・一過性」として除けば「Adjusted net loss」は概ね営業損失 $20.9B 水準。一方で ",[19,376,379],{"href":377,"target":22,"rel":378},"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/17/openai-s-financials-were-just-leaked-you-won-t-believe-how-much-the-company-is-losing/",[24,25],"Motley Fool"," など投資家向けメディアは「売上の 1.6 倍を営業赤字で焼いている」事実そのものを重く扱っており、市場の論調は分かれている。",[29,382,384],{"id":383},"何で確認できるようになるか-s-1-公開のタイミング","何で確認できるようになるか — S-1 公開のタイミング",[15,386,387,388,393,394,397],{},"機密扱い S-1（confidential filing）は、JOBS 法の ",[19,389,392],{"href":390,"target":22,"rel":391},"https://www.sec.gov/smallbusiness/goingpublic",[24,25],"Emerging Growth Company 制度","で認められた仕組み。",[61,395,396],{},"IPO 価格決定の少なくとも 15 営業日前に EDGAR で一般公開される","ルールなので、9月上場なら 8月後半に S-1 が EDGAR に出る公算が高い。今回のリーク数字と S-1 の正式な財務諸表が一致するかは、その時点で誰でも検証できる。",[15,399,400],{},"それまでは「FT・Bloomberg・Fortune などのトップティアが裏取りした」という二次的な信頼性に依存することになる。",[29,402,403],{"id":403},"参考リンク",[126,405,406,413,420,426,432,439],{},[129,407,408,412],{},[19,409,411],{"href":21,"target":22,"rel":410},[24,25],"Where's Your Ed At — Exclusive: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025","（一次リーク）",[129,414,415,419],{},[19,416,418],{"href":93,"target":22,"rel":417},[24,25],"Fortune — OpenAI's financials have leaked","（FT による独立検証を引用）",[129,421,422],{},[19,423,425],{"href":352,"target":22,"rel":424},[24,25],"Quartz — OpenAI 2025 financials leaked: $38.5B loss ahead of IPO",[129,427,428],{},[19,429,431],{"href":377,"target":22,"rel":430},[24,25],"Motley Fool — OpenAI's Financials Were Just Leaked",[129,433,434],{},[19,435,438],{"href":436,"target":22,"rel":437},"https://gigazine.net/news/20260618-openai-financial-docs/",[24,25],"Gigazine — OpenAI の財務文書がリーク（日本語）",[129,440,441],{},[19,442,445],{"href":443,"target":22,"rel":444},"https://mlq.ai/news/leaked-openai-financials-reveal-21b-operating-loss-on-13b-revenue-in-2025/",[24,25],"MLQ News — Leaked OpenAI Financials Reveal $21B Operating Loss",{"title":447,"searchDepth":448,"depth":448,"links":449},"",2,[450,451,452,453,454,455,456],{"id":31,"depth":448,"text":32},{"id":118,"depth":448,"text":118},{"id":166,"depth":448,"text":167},{"id":245,"depth":448,"text":246},{"id":343,"depth":448,"text":344},{"id":383,"depth":448,"text":384},{"id":403,"depth":448,"text":403},"dev","Ed Zitron が監査済み財務諸表を公開、Financial Times が独立検証。SEC S-1 は機密扱いで EDGAR では確認不可。リーク数字をウォーターフォールチャートで整理した。","md",{},true,null,"/openai-financials-leak-2025","financial-data",false,"2026-06-19T00:00:00.000Z",{"title":5,"description":458},"2026-06/2026-06-19/openai-financials-leak-2025",[470,471,472,473,474,475,476],"OpenAI","財務","IPO","Ed Zitron","Financial Times","Microsoft","リーク","PdwxfrLjttRv-HyOwiRqlxLyX2PImxkcLULDvE2LPiI",[],"https://log.eurekapu.com/og/blog/openai-financials-leak-2025.png?v=2026-06-19T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&title=OpenAI%202025%E5%B9%B4%E8%B2%A1%E5%8B%99%E3%83%AA%E3%83%BC%E3%82%AF%20%E2%80%94%20%E5%A3%B2%E4%B8%8A%2413B%20%2F%20%E5%96%B6%E6%A5%AD%E6%90%8D%E5%A4%B1%2421B%20%2F%20%E7%B4%94%E6%90%8D%E5%A4%B1%2438.5B%E3%80%81%E3%81%9D%E3%81%AE%E3%80%8C%E5%85%AC%E5%BC%8F%E6%80%A7%E3%80%8D%E3%82%92%E6%A4%9C%E8%A8%BC%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B&author=Kei%20Komatsu&sig=fc8c6f58ddc56b0e",1782176331623]