成長率 × フォワード PER 散布図
構造転換済み 13 銘柄を対象に、横軸 = NTM EPS 成長率(次4Q合計 ÷ 直近4Q実績 − 1)、 縦軸 = フォワード PER(直近株価 ÷ NTM EPS)でプロット。 左下が「割安・成長弱め」、右上が「成長プレミアム」、右下が「成長率に対して PER が割安」のゾーン。
📖 この2軸が何を表し、何を表さないのか — 散布図の読み方と限界の解説
散布図の 2 軸の EPS 基準だけを切り替えます(下のデータテーブル・決算ビート表は Non-GAAP のまま据え置き)。
EPS 推移:過去実績のビート → NTM 予想
EPS 前四半期比増減率
Q4 FY24+90%
Q1 FY25+52%
Q2 FY25-13%
Q3 FY25+22%
Q4 FY25+59%
Q1 FY26+58%
Q2 FY26+155%
Q3 FY26+106%
Q1 FY27+39%
Q2 FY27+7%
Q3 FY27+7%
データテーブル(Non-GAAP・プロット対象 13 銘柄)
| 銘柄 | 直近株価 | LTM EPS | NTM EPS | 成長率 | フォワード PER | LTM 4Q(過去実績) / NTM 4Q(予想) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | $848.95 | $45.12 | $143.42 | +218% | 5.9x | LTM4Q FY2025$3.03+1Q FY2026$4.78+2Q FY2026$12.20+3Q FY2026$25.11= $45.12 NTM4Q FY2026$31.33+1Q FY2027$34.87+2Q FY2027$37.39+3Q FY2027$39.84= $143.42 |
| NVDA | $202.81 | $5.84 | $9.97 | +71% | 20.3x | LTM2Q FY2026$1.05+3Q FY2026$1.30+4Q FY2026$1.62+1Q FY2027$1.87= $5.84 NTM2Q FY2027$2.09+3Q FY2027$2.35+4Q FY2027$2.66+1Q FY2028$2.87= $9.97 |
| SNDK | $1354.82 | $31.12 | $181.74 | +484% | 7.5x | LTM4Q FY2025$0.29+1Q FY2026$1.22+2Q FY2026$6.20+3Q FY2026$23.41= $31.12 NTM4Q FY2026$34.15+1Q FY2027$43.80+2Q FY2027$52.46+3Q FY2027$51.33= $181.74 |
| Samsung | $255000.00 | $12571.00 | $57724.45 | +359% | 4.4x | LTM2Q FY2025$737.00+3Q FY2025$1802.00+4Q FY2025$2909.00+1Q FY2026$7123.00= $12571.00 NTM2Q FY2026$11032.47+3Q FY2026$14246.68+4Q FY2026$15929.63+1Q FY2027$16515.67= $57724.45 |
| SK hynix | $1842000.00 | $105614.00 | $373363.34 | +254% | 4.9x | LTM2Q FY2025$9572.00+3Q FY2025$17850.00+4Q FY2025$21522.00+1Q FY2026$56670.00= $105614.00 NTM2Q FY2026$70975.39+3Q FY2026$89389.65+4Q FY2026$102603.17+1Q FY2027$110395.13= $373363.34 |
| AMD | $495.76 | $4.58 | $8.84 | +93% | 56.1x | LTM2Q FY2025$0.48+3Q FY2025$1.20+4Q FY2025$1.53+1Q FY2026$1.37= $4.58 NTM2Q FY2026$1.61+3Q FY2026$1.84+4Q FY2026$2.61+1Q FY2027$2.79= $8.84 |
| キオクシア | $77540.00 | $1023.23 | $8978.47 | +777% | 8.6x | LTM1Q FY2026$33.74+2Q FY2026$75.04+3Q FY2026$162.04+4Q FY2026$752.41= $1023.23 NTM1Q FY2027$1683.10+2Q FY2027$2209.56+3Q FY2027$2517.63+4Q FY2027$2568.18= $8978.47 |
| DELL | $396.34 | $13.66 | $18.60 | +36% | 21.3x | LTM2Q FY2026$2.32+3Q FY2026$2.59+4Q FY2026$3.89+1Q FY2027$4.86= $13.66 NTM2Q FY2027$4.90+3Q FY2027$4.23+4Q FY2027$4.48+1Q FY2028$4.99= $18.60 |
| STX | $787.66 | $12.41 | $25.36 | +104% | 31.1x | LTM4Q FY2025$2.59+1Q FY2026$2.61+2Q FY2026$3.11+3Q FY2026$4.10= $12.41 NTM4Q FY2026$5.09+1Q FY2027$5.87+2Q FY2027$6.76+3Q FY2027$7.65= $25.36 |
| WDC | $477.22 | $8.29 | $16.17 | +95% | 29.5x | LTM4Q FY2025$1.66+1Q FY2026$1.78+2Q FY2026$2.13+3Q FY2026$2.72= $8.29 NTM4Q FY2026$3.30+1Q FY2027$3.73+2Q FY2027$4.28+3Q FY2027$4.86= $16.17 |
| CRDO | $202.68 | $3.42 | $6.12 | +79% | 33.1x | LTM1Q FY2026$0.52+2Q FY2026$0.67+3Q FY2026$1.07+4Q FY2026$1.16= $3.42 NTM1Q FY2027$1.16+2Q FY2027$1.25+3Q FY2027$1.63+4Q FY2027$2.08= $6.12 |
| RDDT | $181.18 | $5.27 | $7.41 | +41% | 24.5x | LTM2Q FY2025$0.92+3Q FY2025$1.26+4Q FY2025$1.68+1Q FY2026$1.40= $5.27 NTM2Q FY2026$1.45+3Q FY2026$1.77+4Q FY2026$2.31+1Q FY2027$1.88= $7.41 |
| ALAB | $303.62 | $2.12 | $3.39 | +60% | 89.5x | LTM2Q FY2025$0.44+3Q FY2025$0.49+4Q FY2025$0.58+1Q FY2026$0.61= $2.12 NTM2Q FY2026$0.69+3Q FY2026$0.79+4Q FY2026$0.93+1Q FY2027$0.99= $3.39 |