[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":238},["ShallowReactive",2],{"triple-beat-TSM":3,"og-beat-monitoring-TSM":237},{"ticker":4,"name":5,"description":6,"epsLabel":7,"guidanceLabel":8,"stockLabel":9,"quarters":10,"tableNotes":184,"highlightQuarter":164,"highlightDescription":190,"sources":191,"latestStock":234},"TSM","Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing","世界最大の半導体受託製造（ファウンドリ）専業企業。NVIDIA・Apple・AMD・Broadcomなど大手ファブレスからAI/HPC/スマホ向け先端ロジック半導体の生産を一手に引き受け、3nm/5nm/7nmなどの最先端プロセス技術と先端パッケージング（CoWoS）で圧倒的シェアを持つ。AI需要爆発で売上・粗利率が連続上振れ、Q1 FY26ではフル年売上見通しを『+30%超』へ引き上げ、グロスマージン66.2%（過去最高）を達成。月次売上も毎月開示する透明性の高い経営。","EPS ($, per ADR、希薄化後)","次Q売上ガイド (midpoint, $B)","株価反応 ($)",[11,34,56,78,99,120,142,163],{"quarter":12,"reportDate":13,"event":14,"revenue":15,"eps":20,"guidance":24,"stock":30},"Q2 FY24","2024/7/18","AI需要追い風で売上・利益ともコンセンサス上振れ、Q3ガイドも+30〜33% YoYで強気",{"actual":16,"consensus":17,"beatPct":18,"yoyPct":19},"$20.82 B","$20.32 B",2.5,32.8,{"actual":21,"consensus":22,"beatPct":23},"$1.48","$1.42",4.2,{"revenue":25,"eps":29},{"company":26,"consensus":27,"beatPct":28},"$22.80 B","$22.40 B",1.8,null,{"reportClose":31,"nextClose":32,"changePct":33},"$171.20","$171.87",0.4,{"quarter":35,"reportDate":36,"event":37,"revenue":38,"eps":43,"guidance":47,"stock":52},"Q3 FY24","2024/10/17","AI需要爆発でEPS+9.6%上振れ、Q4ガイドも市場予想を大きく上回り株価+9.8%急騰",{"actual":39,"consensus":40,"beatPct":41,"yoyPct":42},"$23.50 B","$23.00 B",2.2,36,{"actual":44,"consensus":45,"beatPct":46},"$1.94","$1.77",9.6,{"revenue":48,"eps":29},{"company":49,"consensus":50,"beatPct":51},"$26.50 B","$24.90 B",6.4,{"reportClose":53,"nextClose":54,"changePct":55},"$187.48","$205.84",9.8,{"quarter":57,"reportDate":58,"event":59,"revenue":60,"eps":65,"guidance":69,"stock":74},"Q4 FY24","2025/1/16","売上・EPSともコンセンサス上振れ、2025年Capex US$38-42B（過去最大）発表で株価+3.9%",{"actual":61,"consensus":62,"beatPct":63,"yoyPct":64},"$26.88 B","$26.38 B",1.9,37,{"actual":66,"consensus":67,"beatPct":68},"$2.24","$2.16",3.7,{"revenue":70,"eps":29},{"company":71,"consensus":72,"beatPct":73},"$25.40 B","$24.40 B",4.1,{"reportClose":75,"nextClose":76,"changePct":77},"$206.80","$214.79",3.9,{"quarter":79,"reportDate":80,"event":81,"revenue":82,"eps":86,"guidance":90,"stock":95},"Q1 FY25","2025/4/17","売上・EPSとも僅差で上振れ、Q2ガイドは強気だがTrump関税懸念の中で株価ほぼ横ばい",{"actual":83,"consensus":71,"beatPct":84,"yoyPct":85},"$25.53 B",0.5,35.3,{"actual":87,"consensus":88,"beatPct":89},"$2.12","$2.06",2.1,{"revenue":91,"eps":29},{"company":92,"consensus":93,"beatPct":94},"$28.80 B","$26.70 B",7.9,{"reportClose":96,"nextClose":97,"changePct":98},"$151.67","$151.74",0,{"quarter":100,"reportDate":101,"event":102,"revenue":103,"eps":108,"guidance":111,"stock":116},"Q2 FY25","2025/7/17","売上US$30B超え達成、EPS+60.7% YoY、Arizona第2 fabにR&Dセンター追加で株価+3.4%",{"actual":104,"consensus":105,"beatPct":106,"yoyPct":107},"$30.07 B","$30.04 B",0.1,44.4,{"actual":109,"consensus":110,"beatPct":23},"$2.47","$2.37",{"revenue":112,"eps":29},{"company":113,"consensus":114,"beatPct":115},"$32.40 B","$30.40 B",6.6,{"reportClose":117,"nextClose":118,"changePct":119},"$237.56","$245.60",3.4,{"quarter":121,"reportDate":122,"event":123,"revenue":124,"eps":129,"guidance":133,"stock":138},"Q3 FY25","2025/10/16","EPS+12.7%・グロスマージン59.5%が自社ガイドを200bp上振れ、フル年売上見通し『mid-30s%』へ引き上げ。事前期待過剰でSell-the-news",{"actual":125,"consensus":126,"beatPct":127,"yoyPct":128},"$33.10 B","$31.50 B",5.1,40.8,{"actual":130,"consensus":131,"beatPct":132},"$2.92","$2.59",12.7,{"revenue":134,"eps":29},{"company":135,"consensus":136,"beatPct":137},"$32.80 B","$32.30 B",1.5,{"reportClose":139,"nextClose":140,"changePct":141},"$304.71","$299.84",-1.6,{"quarter":143,"reportDate":144,"event":145,"revenue":146,"eps":150,"guidance":154,"stock":159},"Q4 FY25","2026/1/15","グロスマージン62.3%（過去最高、ガイドを110bp上振れ）、2026 Capex US$52-56B 発表でAI需要持続を強調",{"actual":147,"consensus":148,"beatPct":41,"yoyPct":149},"$33.73 B","$33.00 B",25.5,{"actual":151,"consensus":152,"beatPct":153},"$3.14","$2.97",5.7,{"revenue":155,"eps":29},{"company":156,"consensus":157,"beatPct":158},"$35.20 B","$32.50 B",8.3,{"reportClose":160,"nextClose":161,"changePct":162},"$341.64","$342.40",0.2,{"quarter":164,"reportDate":165,"event":166,"revenue":167,"eps":172,"guidance":176,"stock":180},"Q1 FY26","2026/4/16","グロスマージン66.2%（前Q+390bp、過去最高）、Q2ガイドUS$39.0-40.2B、フル年売上ガイド『+30%超』へ引き上げ。AI需要『extremely robust』。当日Sell-the-news",{"actual":168,"consensus":169,"beatPct":170,"yoyPct":171},"$35.90 B","$35.50 B",1.1,40.6,{"actual":173,"consensus":174,"beatPct":175},"$3.49","$3.30",5.8,{"revenue":177,"eps":29},{"company":178,"consensus":179,"beatPct":77},"$39.60 B","$38.10 B",{"reportClose":181,"nextClose":182,"changePct":183},"$375.10","$363.35",-3.1,[185,186,187,188,189],"TSM は会計年度がカレンダー年と一致（FY24=2024/1〜12、FY25=2025/1〜12）。1 ADR = 5 普通株、EPS は US$/ADR の希薄化後ベース。","TSM は次Q EPS ガイドを直接公表しない（売上・粗利率・営業利益率の3点のみガイド）。表の guidance.eps は全て空欄（公表していない）。","実績・会社ガイダンスは TSM 公式IR (investor.tsmc.com) / SEC EDGAR Form 6-K、コンセンサスは LSEG / Zacks / Reuters / Investing.com 経由の事前コンセンサス代表値。NT$建てで報じられたコンセンサスは当時のNT$/$レートで US$ 換算しているため±3-5%の換算誤差を含む。","株価は Stooq の日次終値を採用。TSM ADR は NY 時間 BMO（市場前）発表のため、reportClose は発表前営業日終値、nextClose は発表当日終値。Q4 FY25（2026/1/15）は前々日比 +4.4%（$327.11→$341.64）の上昇後に発表されたため、発表当日終値→翌日終値の見かけの反応は+0.2%にとどまる。","Q2 FY24 当日は半導体セクター全体の調整影響で翌7/19に株価-3.5%まで波及（決算ミスではない）。","決定的だったのはQ1 FY26（2026/4/16発表）。グロスマージンが前Q+390bp の66.2%（過去最高）まで跳ね、Q2ガイドUS$39.0-40.2B（コンセンサス$38.1Bを上振れ）、さらにフル年売上ガイドを従来の『mid-30s%』から『+30%超』へ引き上げた。CC Wei CEO が AI 需要を『extremely robust』と言い切り、TSM が単なる『AI 銘柄の代理』ではなく『AI サプライチェーンの確定リーダー』であることをマージンで示した瞬間。当日株価は『Sell-the-news＋関税ヘッドライン懸念』で-3.1%だったが、その後のQ2 FY25→Q1 FY26の連続マージン拡大（57.8%→58.6%→59.5%→62.3%→66.2%）は構造転換の典型シグナル。",[192,195,198,201,204,207,210,213,216,219,222,225,228,231],{"label":193,"url":194},"TSMC Quarterly Results (IR)","https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results",{"label":196,"url":197},"TSMC 2Q24 Press Release","https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3160",{"label":199,"url":200},"TSMC 3Q24 Press Release","https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3180",{"label":202,"url":203},"TSMC 4Q24 Press Release","https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3201",{"label":205,"url":206},"TSMC 1Q25 Press Release","https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3222",{"label":208,"url":209},"TSMC 2Q25 Press Release","https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3249",{"label":211,"url":212},"TSMC 3Q25 (IR)","https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2025/q3",{"label":214,"url":215},"TSMC 4Q25 Press Release","https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3281",{"label":217,"url":218},"TSMC 1Q26 Press Release","https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3297",{"label":220,"url":221},"SEC EDGAR TSM filings (CIK 0001046179)","https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001046179",{"label":223,"url":224},"Investing.com: TSMC Q4 FY24 results (Reuters)","https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tsmc-posts-q4-revenue-of-104608-billion-above-forecasts-4438484",{"label":226,"url":227},"CNBC: TSMC Q2 FY24 earnings","https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/18/tsmc-q2-2024-earnings.html",{"label":229,"url":230},"VanEck: TSMC Q1 FY26 earnings call analysis","https://www.vaneck.com/offshore/en/news-and-insights/blogs/thematic-investing/tsmc-q1-earnings-call-what-it-means-for-smh/",{"label":232,"url":233},"Stooq TSM.US daily history","https://stooq.com/q/?s=tsm.us",{"date":235,"close":236},"2026-06-04","$444.82","https://log.eurekapu.com/og/pages/general/beat-monitoring-TSM.png?title=TSM%20Taiwan%20Semiconductor%20Manufacturing%20-%20%E3%83%93%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88%E3%83%A2%E3%83%8B%E3%82%BF%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B0&sig=b4ef9c2b5eb8e7a5",1780619856733]