[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":210},["ShallowReactive",2],{"triple-beat-META":3,"og-beat-monitoring-META":209},{"ticker":4,"name":5,"description":6,"epsLabel":7,"guidanceLabel":8,"stockLabel":9,"quarters":10,"tableNotes":141,"highlightQuarter":121,"highlightDescription":150,"sources":151,"latestStock":206},"META","Meta Platforms","Meta Platforms（META）はFamily of Apps（Facebook / Instagram / WhatsApp / Messenger / Threads）の広告収益を主力とするデジタル広告の最大手で、Reality Labs（Quest / Ray-Ban Meta / Orion）でVR/ARに巨額投資を続ける。広告は依然YoY+20〜33%で成長し、Family of Appsの営業利益が四半期$25〜30B規模を稼ぐ一方、Reality Labsは四半期$4〜6Bの営業赤字を垂れ流す。AI戦略の中核としてLlamaモデル群と独自の推論インフラに投資し、2025年6月にScale AIへ$143B評価で49%出資（Alexandr Wang兼CEOがMeta入り）、同時にMeta Superintelligence Labsを発足。Capexはレイズが続き、FY25は当初ガイド$60〜65B→最終$66〜72B→Q3で$70〜72Bへ集約（FY25実績$72.2B）。FY26はQ4 2025発表で$115〜135Bを初提示し、Q1 2026決算で$125〜145Bへさらに上方修正。一方で『capexは大きいがビートは続く』四半期と『capex懸念が勝つ』四半期が交互に来る不安定さがあり、Q3 2025は新US税法による一時非現金税金費用と『FY26 capexはnotably larger』示唆で-11.3%、Q1 2026もcapex上方修正＋RL赤字嫌気で-8.6%。Q4 2025はビート＋FY26 $115〜135BがStreet期待（$110.7B）超ながら『最悪シナリオ未満』で+10.4%反発、ガイダンスとの相対バーで動く典型的なAI capex銘柄になりつつある。","EPS ($, GAAP 希薄化後)","次Q売上ガイド (midpoint, $B)","株価反応 ($)",[11,34,56,76,98,120],{"quarter":12,"reportDate":13,"event":14,"revenue":15,"eps":20,"guidance":24,"stock":30},"Q4 2024","2025/1/29","売上$48.39B（+20.6% YoY）・GAAP EPS $8.02ともに大幅ビート。Family of Apps売上$47.30B、Reality Labs営業損失−$4.97B（売上$1.08B）。FY25 capexを初めて$60〜65Bでガイドし投資家を驚かせたが、Llama 4とAIインフラ投資の継続コミットを示し翌日は+1.6%",{"actual":16,"consensus":17,"beatPct":18,"yoyPct":19},"$48.39 B","$47.03 B",2.9,20.6,{"actual":21,"consensus":22,"beatPct":23},"$8.02","$6.77",18.5,{"revenue":25,"eps":29},{"company":26,"consensus":27,"beatPct":28},"$40.65 B","$41.67 B",-2.4,null,{"reportClose":31,"nextClose":32,"changePct":33},"$676.49","$687.00",1.6,{"quarter":35,"reportDate":36,"event":37,"revenue":38,"eps":43,"guidance":47,"stock":52},"Q1 2025","2025/4/30","売上$42.31B（+16.1% YoY）・GAAP EPS $6.43ともに大幅ビート。Family of Apps売上$41.90B、Reality Labs営業損失−$4.21B（売上$0.41B）。FY25 capexを$60〜65B→$64〜72Bへ上方修正（AIデータセンター投資加速＋HW部材コスト増要因）。広告価格が引き続き強く翌日+4.2%",{"actual":39,"consensus":40,"beatPct":41,"yoyPct":42},"$42.31 B","$41.40 B",2.2,16.1,{"actual":44,"consensus":45,"beatPct":46},"$6.43","$5.28",21.8,{"revenue":48,"eps":29},{"company":49,"consensus":50,"beatPct":51},"$44.00 B","$43.80 B",0.5,{"reportClose":53,"nextClose":54,"changePct":55},"$549.00","$572.21",4.2,{"quarter":57,"reportDate":58,"event":59,"revenue":60,"eps":65,"guidance":68,"stock":72},"Q2 2025","2025/7/30","売上$47.52B（+21.6% YoY）・GAAP EPS $7.14とも特大ビート。Family of Apps売上$47.15B、Reality Labs営業損失−$4.53B（売上$0.37B）。FY25 capexを$66〜72Bへ上端側に絞り込み、Zuckerbergが『personal superintelligence』を提唱、6月に$143B評価でScale AIへ49%出資＋Alexandr Wang率いるMeta Superintelligence Labs発足。次Q強気ガイド$47.5〜50.5B（mid $49.0B）と相まって翌日+11.3%",{"actual":61,"consensus":62,"beatPct":63,"yoyPct":64},"$47.52 B","$44.80 B",6.1,21.6,{"actual":66,"consensus":67,"beatPct":19},"$7.14","$5.92",{"revenue":69,"eps":29},{"company":70,"consensus":71,"beatPct":63},"$49.00 B","$46.20 B",{"reportClose":73,"nextClose":74,"changePct":75},"$695.21","$773.44",11.3,{"quarter":77,"reportDate":78,"event":79,"revenue":80,"eps":85,"guidance":89,"stock":94},"Q3 2025","2025/10/29","売上$51.24B（+26% YoY）はビートも、GAAP EPSは新US税法（One Big Beautiful Bill Act）による一時非現金税金費用で$1.05へ急落（除外ベースの基礎EPSは$7.25でコンセンサス$6.69を超過）。Family of Apps売上$50.8B、Reality Labs営業損失−$4.4B。FY25 capexを$70〜72Bへ上方修正＋FY26は『notably larger』と示唆し過去3年で最大の-11.3%急落",{"actual":81,"consensus":82,"beatPct":83,"yoyPct":84},"$51.24 B","$49.41 B",3.7,26,{"actual":86,"consensus":87,"beatPct":88},"$1.05","$6.69",-84.3,{"revenue":90,"eps":29},{"company":91,"consensus":92,"beatPct":93},"$57.50 B","$57.30 B",0.3,{"reportClose":95,"nextClose":96,"changePct":97},"$751.67","$666.47",-11.3,{"quarter":99,"reportDate":100,"event":101,"revenue":102,"eps":107,"guidance":111,"stock":116},"Q4 2025","2026/1/28","売上$59.89B（+24% YoY）・GAAP EPS $8.88ともに大幅ビート。Family of Apps売上$58.9B（営業利益$30.8B）、Reality Labs営業損失−$6.0B（売上$0.96B、FY25通年RL赤字$19.19B）。FY26 capexを初めて$115〜135Bで開示——sell-side期待$110.7Bは超えたが市場が恐れた『$150B+』シナリオは回避され翌日+10.4%反発",{"actual":103,"consensus":104,"beatPct":105,"yoyPct":106},"$59.89 B","$58.40 B",2.6,24,{"actual":108,"consensus":109,"beatPct":110},"$8.88","$8.18",8.6,{"revenue":112,"eps":29},{"company":113,"consensus":114,"beatPct":115},"$55.00 B","$51.30 B",7.2,{"reportClose":117,"nextClose":118,"changePct":119},"$668.73","$738.31",10.4,{"quarter":121,"reportDate":122,"event":123,"revenue":124,"eps":129,"guidance":133,"stock":137},"Q1 2026","2026/4/29","売上$56.31B（+33% YoY、2021年以来最速）はビート、GAAP EPSは$8.03Bの法人税還付益で$10.44に膨れたが基礎EPSは$7.31（vs コンセンサス$6.67、+9.6%）。Family of Apps売上$55.91B、Reality Labs営業損失−$4.03B。FY26 capexを$115〜135B→$125〜145Bへさらに上方修正（部材高＋データセンターコスト要因）＋RL赤字継続を嫌気して翌日-8.6%",{"actual":125,"consensus":126,"beatPct":127,"yoyPct":128},"$56.31 B","$55.52 B",1.4,33,{"actual":130,"consensus":131,"beatPct":132},"$10.44","$6.67",56.5,{"revenue":134,"eps":29},{"company":135,"consensus":135,"beatPct":136},"$59.50 B",0,{"reportClose":138,"nextClose":139,"changePct":140},"$669.12","$611.91",-8.6,[142,143,144,145,146,147,148,149],"Meta Platforms は12月期決算（カレンダー四半期＝会計四半期）。reportDate は決算発表日（米国市場引け後、AMC）。next-Q ガイダンスは会社提示の売上レンジ（low–high）の midpoint で表示する。","guidance の eps は全四半期 null（Meta は次Q売上ガイドのみ提示し、EPS の会社ガイドを出さない方針）。テーブルは『EPS ガイドは公表していない』注記行に自動切替される。","各四半期の次Q売上ガイドに対する当時のストリートコンセンサスは、X (Twitter) 検索 (Grok-4.20-reasoning, x-search) で発表日±数日の投稿群から取得した。FactSet 由来の値（zerohedge / Street_Insider / wallstengine 等の速報アカウント）と独立アナリスト（RihardJarc / StockSavvyShay / BraVoCycles 等）の複数投稿の中央値を採用値とした。各四半期ごとに5〜8件の投稿で値が収束しており、信頼性は高い。比較メモ: Q4 2024→Q1 2025 ガイド -2.4%（FX/leap day 慎重）、Q2 2025→Q3 2025 ガイド +6.1%（株価急騰要因）、Q4 2025→Q1 2026 ガイド +7.2%（広告強）、Q1 2026→Q2 2026 ガイド 0.0%（in-line だが low-end の弱さで売り）。","Reality Labs は毎四半期 $4〜6B の営業赤字を計上（FY25 通年 RL 赤字 $19.19B）。Family of Apps の営業利益（直近 Q4 2025 で $30.8B）が全額を吸収する構造で、ヘッドラインの営業利益・EPS は依然伸長中。","Capex ガイドの上方修正履歴: FY25 初提示 $60〜65B（Q4 2024）→ $64〜72B（Q1 2025）→ $66〜72B（Q2 2025）→ $70〜72B（Q3 2025）→ 実績 $72.2B。FY26 は Q4 2025 で $115〜135B を初提示し、Q1 2026 で $125〜145B へさらに上方修正。市場の関心は『capex 上方修正の上限がどこか』に移っており、ガイドのレイズ幅とそれに対する株価反応の方向が四半期ごとに割れる。","Q3 2025 の GAAP EPS $1.05 は新US税法（OBBBA, One Big Beautiful Bill Act）による一時非現金税金費用が押し下げた数値。同税法を除外した基礎 EPS は $7.25（コンセンサス $6.69 を超過）。逆に Q1 2026 の GAAP EPS $10.44 は $8.03B の法人税還付益が押し上げており、基礎 EPS は $7.31。比較可能性のため event 欄に基礎ベースを併記している。コンセンサスは GAAP ベース（LSEG / FactSet 集約）で揃えている。","AI 戦略の主要イベント: 2025/6 に Scale AI へ $143B 評価で 49% 出資（Alexandr Wang が Meta Chief AI Officer 兼務）＋ Meta Superintelligence Labs 発足。Llama モデル群と独自推論インフラへの投資が capex 増の主因。","実績・会社ガイダンス・セグメント数値は Meta IR / SEC EDGAR 8-K（CIK 0001326801）の一次情報。コンセンサスは LSEG を主、FactSet / CNBC / Reuters を補助に複数突き合わせた代表値（±数%の誤差を含む）。株価は Yahoo Finance / Stooq / stockanalysis.com の3ソースで照合（未調整 close）し、changePct は手計算で再検証済み。","注目は Q1 2026（2026/4/29 発表）。売上 $56.31B（+33% YoY、2021年以来最速）と基礎 EPS $7.31（コンセンサス $6.67、+9.6%）でヘッドラインは大幅ビートだったが、FY26 capex ガイドを $115〜135B → $125〜145B へさらに上方修正（部材高＋データセンターコスト要因）したことと、Reality Labs が $4.03B の営業赤字を継続したことを嫌気し、翌日 -8.6%。GAAP EPS $10.44 は $8.03B の法人税還付益が押し上げているため、見かけほどのビートではない点に注意。Q3 2025（-11.3%、capex 上方修正＋一時税金費用）→ Q4 2025（+10.4%、FY26 capex 初提示が市場の最悪シナリオ未満で反発）→ Q1 2026（-8.6%、capex さらに上方修正）と、META はもはや『AI capex の規模と上方修正幅』で株価が動く銘柄に再定義されつつある。Family of Apps の広告事業は依然 +33% で加速しているが、市場の評価軸は『広告のビート率』から『capex レイズ vs Street の許容度』に移った。次は Q2 2026 で FY26 capex ガイドのさらなる上方修正の有無＋ Superintelligence Labs / Llama 関連の収益寄与の初期サインが焦点。",[152,155,158,161,164,167,170,173,176,179,182,185,188,191,194,197,200,203],{"label":153,"url":154},"Meta Q4 2024 8-K (SEC EDGAR, ex99.1)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001326801/000132680125000014/meta-12312024xexhibit991.htm",{"label":156,"url":157},"Meta Q2 2025 8-K (SEC EDGAR, ex99.1)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001326801/000162828025036719/meta-06302025xexhibit991.htm",{"label":159,"url":160},"Meta Q3 2025 8-K (SEC EDGAR, ex99.1)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001326801/000162828025047114/meta-09302025xexhibit991.htm",{"label":162,"url":163},"Meta Q4 2025 8-K (SEC EDGAR, ex99.1)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001326801/000162828026003832/meta-12312025xexhibit991.htm",{"label":165,"url":166},"Meta Q1 2026 8-K (SEC EDGAR, ex99.1)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001326801/000162828026028364/meta-03312026xexhibit991.htm",{"label":168,"url":169},"Meta IR: Q4 2024 results press release","https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2025/Meta-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2024-Results/default.aspx",{"label":171,"url":172},"Meta IR: Q1 2025 results press release","https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2025/Meta-Reports-First-Quarter-2025-Results/default.aspx",{"label":174,"url":175},"Meta IR: Q2 2025 results press release","https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2025/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2025-Results/default.aspx",{"label":177,"url":178},"CNBC: Meta Q4 2024 earnings recap","https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/29/meta-q4-earnings-report-2024.html",{"label":180,"url":181},"CNBC: Meta Q2 2025 earnings recap","https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/30/meta-q2-earnings-report-2025.html",{"label":183,"url":184},"CNBC: Meta Q3 2025 stock reaction (capex + tax charge)","https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/30/meta-stock-earnings-ai-spend.html",{"label":186,"url":187},"CNBC: Meta Q4 2025 earnings recap (FY26 capex)","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/28/meta-q4-earnings-report-2025.html",{"label":189,"url":190},"CNBC: Meta Q1 2026 earnings recap (capex raise)","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/meta-q1-earnings-report-2026.html",{"label":192,"url":193},"CNBC: Reality Labs Q1 2026 lost over $4B","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/metas-reality-labs-lost-over-4-billion-in-first-quarter.html",{"label":195,"url":196},"Seeking Alpha: Meta Q2 2026 rev guide $58–61B + FY26 capex $125–145B","https://seekingalpha.com/news/4582442-meta-forecasts-q2-2026-revenue-of-58b-to-61b-while-raising-2026-capex-to-125b-145b",{"label":198,"url":199},"Variety: Meta Q1 2025 capex raised to $64–72B","https://variety.com/2025/digital/news/meta-q1-2025-earnings-revenue-outlook-1236382913/",{"label":201,"url":202},"Auganix: Meta Reality Labs FY25 financial detail","https://www.auganix.org/xr-news-meta-reality-labs-2025-financial-report/",{"label":204,"url":205},"stockanalysis.com META price history (株価3値の照合用)","https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/meta/history/",{"date":207,"close":208},"2026-06-25","$542.87","https://log.eurekapu.com/og/pages/general/beat-monitoring-META.png?title=META%20Meta%20Platforms%20-%20%E3%83%93%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88%E3%83%A2%E3%83%8B%E3%82%BF%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B0&sig=6b1b2a738c04973d",1782445072656]