[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":160},["ShallowReactive",2],{"triple-beat-HOOD":3,"og-beat-monitoring-HOOD":159},{"ticker":4,"name":5,"description":6,"epsLabel":7,"guidanceLabel":8,"stockLabel":9,"quarters":10,"tableNotes":111,"highlightQuarter":96,"highlightDescription":115,"sources":116},"HOOD","Robinhood Markets","オンライン証券・暗号資産取引・銀行業を含むリテール向けフィンテック総合プラットフォーム。収益源はオプション/株式の Payment for Order Flow (PFOF)、暗号資産取引手数料、Gold会員サブスク、純金利収入の4本柱。2024 Q4〜2025 Q3 は売上 YoY +45〜115%・GAAP EPS +29〜260% の連続トリプルビートで株価が2024/11 $30台 → 2025/11 $140台へ約4〜5倍化した。ただし暗号資産取引売上のウェイトが大きく、Q4 2025 で売上ミス、Q1 2026 では暗号資産取引売上 YoY -47% を直撃因として売上・EPS ダブルミスとなり翌日株価 -13.5%。AIインフラのような構造的需要というよりは、暗号資産・取引ボラに連動する景気循環色を持ち、構造転換ではなく「暗号資産シーズン」依存のビートと判明したパターン。","EPS ($, GAAP 希薄化後)","次Q売上ガイド (公表なし)","株価反応 ($)",[11,29,46,61,78,95],{"quarter":12,"reportDate":13,"event":14,"revenue":15,"eps":20,"guidance":24,"stock":25},"Q4 2024","2025/2/12","売上 YoY+115% 過去最高$1.01B、暗号資産取引売上 YoY+700%($358M)、Gold会員 +86% 260万人、翌日株価+14%",{"actual":16,"consensus":17,"beatPct":18,"yoyPct":19},"$1.01 B","$0.94 B",7.8,115.3,{"actual":21,"consensus":22,"beatPct":23},"$0.54","$0.42",28.6,null,{"reportClose":26,"nextClose":27,"changePct":28},"$55.91","$63.80",14.1,{"quarter":30,"reportDate":31,"event":32,"revenue":33,"eps":38,"guidance":24,"stock":42},"Q1 2025","2025/4/30","売上 YoY+50% $927M、純利益 YoY+114% $336M、Gold会員 +90% 320万人、EPS+19%ビートも株価-5%反落",{"actual":34,"consensus":35,"beatPct":36,"yoyPct":37},"$0.93 B","$0.92 B",0.5,50,{"actual":39,"consensus":40,"beatPct":41},"$0.37","$0.31",19.4,{"reportClose":43,"nextClose":44,"changePct":45},"$49.11","$46.62",-5.1,{"quarter":47,"reportDate":48,"event":49,"revenue":50,"eps":55,"guidance":24,"stock":57},"Q2 2025","2025/7/30","売上 YoY+45% $989M、GAAP EPS倍増$0.42、Gold会員 +76% 350万人、Bitstamp買収完了、株価-3%",{"actual":51,"consensus":52,"beatPct":53,"yoyPct":54},"$0.99 B","$0.91 B",8.9,45,{"actual":22,"consensus":40,"beatPct":56},35.5,{"reportClose":58,"nextClose":59,"changePct":60},"$106.10","$103.05",-2.9,{"quarter":62,"reportDate":63,"event":64,"revenue":65,"eps":70,"guidance":24,"stock":74},"Q3 2025","2025/11/5","売上倍増 $1.27B、GAAP EPS +259% $0.61、暗号資産売上4倍$268M、Gold会員 +77% 390万人、CFO Warnick退任発表で翌日株価-11%",{"actual":66,"consensus":67,"beatPct":68,"yoyPct":69},"$1.27 B","$1.19 B",6.7,100,{"actual":71,"consensus":72,"beatPct":73},"$0.61","$0.53",15.1,{"reportClose":75,"nextClose":76,"changePct":77},"$142.48","$127.08",-10.8,{"quarter":79,"reportDate":80,"event":81,"revenue":82,"eps":87,"guidance":24,"stock":91},"Q4 2025","2026/2/10","暗号資産取引売上失速で売上 -4.5%ミス（$1.28B vs $1.34B予想）、EPS は小幅ビート、株価-9%",{"actual":83,"consensus":84,"beatPct":85,"yoyPct":86},"$1.28 B","$1.34 B",-4.5,26.7,{"actual":88,"consensus":89,"beatPct":90},"$0.66","$0.63",4.8,{"reportClose":92,"nextClose":93,"changePct":94},"$85.59","$77.97",-8.9,{"quarter":96,"reportDate":97,"event":98,"revenue":99,"eps":103,"guidance":24,"stock":107},"Q1 2026","2026/4/28","暗号資産取引売上 YoY-47% で売上・EPS ダブルミス、翌日株価-13.5% で連続ビートのストーリー一旦終焉",{"actual":100,"consensus":101,"beatPct":102,"yoyPct":73},"$1.07 B","$1.14 B",-6.1,{"actual":104,"consensus":105,"beatPct":106},"$0.38","$0.39",-2.6,{"reportClose":108,"nextClose":109,"changePct":110},"$82.32","$71.20",-13.5,[112,113,114],"Robinhood は次四半期の売上/EPSの定量ガイダンスを公表していない（公表しているのは通年の Adjusted Operating Expenses + Stock-Based Compensation のみ）。このため guidance 列は全Q空欄。Q2 2025 に Bitstamp 買収完了で通年Adj OpEx+SBC を $2.00B–$2.10B から $2.15B–$2.25B に引上げ、Q3 2025 に CEO RSU vesting 関連で $2.28B 前後に再引上げ。","Q4 2024 の EPS $0.54 は一過性ベネフィット除外後の比較ベース値。報告 GAAP 希薄化後 EPS は $1.01 だったが、内訳に繰延税金資産評価性引当金取崩益 $0.41 と規制和解戻入益 $0.06 の合計 $0.47 の一過性益を含むため、Zacks/LSEG コンセンサスはこれらを除いた $0.54 と比較。Q1 2025 以降は一過性なしの素の GAAP 希薄化後 EPS。","実績・通年ガイダンスは Robinhood IR / SEC 8-K、コンセンサスは LSEG / Zacks / Investing.com / Public.com 等の事前アナリスト集約値の代表値。株価は Stooq HOOD.US 終値を 2 ソースで照合（changePct は (nextClose / reportClose - 1) で自己計算が一致）。","決定的だったのは Q1 2026（2026/4/28発表）。Q4 2024 から Q3 2025 まで4四半期連続でトリプルビート（売上 YoY +45〜115%、GAAP EPS +29〜260%、株価最大 +14% 反応）を出し、株価は2024/11 $30台から 2025/11 高値 $140台へ約4〜5倍化していた。しかし Q4 2025 で売上 -4.5% ミスとなり、続く Q1 2026 で暗号資産取引売上が YoY -47% と急減速、売上 -6.1%・EPS -2.6% のダブルミスとなって翌日株価 -13.5%。暗号資産取引の収益依存度の高さが景気循環色を強め、AIインフラやメモリのような構造的・恒常的な需要シフトとは別物だったと露呈した瞬間。連続ビート銘柄でも収益構造の中核が外部ボラ（暗号資産価格・出来高）に依存する場合は『構造転換』とは呼びにくいパターンを学べる事例。",[117,120,123,126,129,132,135,138,141,144,147,150,153,156],{"label":118,"url":119},"Robinhood Q4 2024 Press Release (IR)","https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-results",{"label":121,"url":122},"Robinhood Q4 2024 8-K (SEC)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387925000045/q42024robinhoodexhibit991.htm",{"label":124,"url":125},"Nasdaq/Zacks: HOOD Beats Q4 2024 (cons EPS $0.42)","https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/robinhood-markets-inc-hood-beats-q4-earnings-and-revenue-estimates",{"label":127,"url":128},"Robinhood Q1 2025 8-K (SEC)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387925000144/q12025robinhoodexhibit991.htm",{"label":130,"url":131},"Nasdaq/Zacks: HOOD Q1 2025 results (cons EPS $0.31)","https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/robinhood-markets-inc-hood-surpasses-q1-earnings-and-revenue-estimates",{"label":133,"url":134},"Robinhood Q2 2025 Press Release (GlobeNewswire)","https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/07/30/3124419/0/en/Robinhood-Reports-Second-Quarter-2025-Results.html",{"label":136,"url":137},"CNBC: Robinhood Q2 2025 (LSEG cons rev $908M / EPS $0.31)","https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/30/robinhood-hood-q2-2025-earnings.html",{"label":139,"url":140},"Robinhood Q3 2025 Press Release (GlobeNewswire)","https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/11/05/3181923/0/en/Robinhood-Reports-Third-Quarter-2025-Results.html",{"label":142,"url":143},"CNBC: Robinhood Q3 2025 (LSEG cons rev $1.19B / EPS $0.53)","https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/05/robinhood-hood-q3-2025-earnings.html",{"label":145,"url":146},"Robinhood Q4 2025 Press Release (IR)","https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-results",{"label":148,"url":149},"Investing.com: Robinhood Q4 2025 revenue miss","https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/robinhood-q4-2025-slides-record-profits-and-68-asset-growth-despite-revenue-miss-93CH-4498511",{"label":151,"url":152},"Robinhood Q1 2026 Press Release (IR)","https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-first-quarter-2026-results",{"label":154,"url":155},"Investing.com: Robinhood Q1 2026 earnings call transcript","https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-robinhood-q1-2026-misses-forecasts-stock-dips-93CH-4643325",{"label":157,"url":158},"Stooq HOOD.US daily history","https://stooq.com/q/d/?s=hood.us","https://log.eurekapu.com/og/pages/general/beat-monitoring-HOOD.png?title=HOOD%20Robinhood%20Markets%20-%20%E3%83%93%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88%E3%83%A2%E3%83%8B%E3%82%BF%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B0&sig=449f2cbcfc70cbdd",1780619857283]