[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":427},["ShallowReactive",2],{"triple-beat-CSCO":3,"og-beat-monitoring-CSCO":426},{"ticker":4,"name":5,"description":6,"epsLabel":7,"guidanceLabel":8,"stockLabel":9,"quarters":10,"tableNotes":257,"highlightQuarter":225,"highlightDescription":268,"sources":269,"latestStock":321,"kpiTrends":324},"CSCO","Cisco Systems","Cisco Systems（CSCO）はネットワーク機器の最大手。FY2026 の売上 $63.3B のうち製品が $48.3B を占め、その中核のネットワーキング（スイッチ・ルーター・無線）だけで $34.7B と全社の55%になる。2024年3月に約280億ドルで買収した Splunk によってセキュリティ $8.2B とオブザーバビリティ $1.1B というソフトウェア収益が乗ったが、両者を足しても全社の15%にとどまり、事業の重心は依然ハードウェアにある（サブスクリプション比率はむしろ FY25Q4 の54%から FY26Q4 は48%へ下がった。ソフトが縮んだのではなく、ハードがそれ以上に伸びたためである）。AI は3つの経路で効く。第一にハイパースケーラー向けの AI インフラ受注で、Silicon One 系のシステムと光モジュールが中心。FY25 の $2B 超から FY26 は $9.3B へ膨らみ、FY27 は $7.5B の売上計上を見込む。第二に AI 導入に伴う企業側のキャンパス網の更新需要。第三にエージェントの利用そのもので、同社は「エージェントが実行するタスクは、人間が同じ作業をした場合に比べ最大450%多いトラフィックを生む」と推計している。会計年度は7月最終土曜日締め（FY2026 は2026年7月25日）。この tier は「ソフトウェア」だが、Cisco 自体はハードウェア主体の会社である。それでもここに並べているのは、AI の業績寄与が半導体からネットワークへ波及する過程を、受注と粗利率という2つの数字で同時に観測できるからだ。実際 FY26 は AI 受注が加速する一方で非GAAP粗利率が 69.3%→66.3% へ切り下がり、実績がコンセンサスを上回っても株価が大きく下げる四半期が2回あった。","EPS ($, 非GAAP 希薄化後)","次Q会社ガイド (midpoint: 売上 $B / 非GAAP EPS $)","株価反応 ($)",[11,45,72,104,134,164,192,224],{"quarter":12,"reportDate":13,"event":14,"revenue":15,"eps":20,"guidance":24,"stock":41},"FY25Q1","2024/11/13","実績はビートも4四半期連続の減収。通年ガイドも市場並みで翌日-2.1%",{"actual":16,"consensus":17,"beatPct":18,"yoyPct":19},"$13,841 M","$13,770 M",0.5,-6,{"actual":21,"consensus":22,"beatPct":23},"$0.91","$0.87",4.6,{"revenue":25,"eps":29,"fullYearLabel":32,"fullYearRevenue":33,"fullYearEps":37},{"company":26,"consensus":27,"beatPct":28},"$13.85 B","$13.73 B",0.9,{"company":30,"consensus":22,"beatPct":31},"$0.90",3.4,"FY25",{"company":34,"consensus":35,"beatPct":36},"$55.80 B","$55.89 B",-0.2,{"company":38,"consensus":39,"beatPct":40},"$3.63","$3.58",1.4,{"reportClose":42,"nextClose":43,"changePct":44},"$59.18","$57.92",-2.1,{"quarter":46,"reportDate":47,"event":48,"revenue":49,"eps":53,"guidance":56,"stock":68},"FY25Q2","2025/2/12","通年ガイドを増額し自社株買い枠を$15B積み増し。AIインフラ受注は四半期$350M超",{"actual":50,"consensus":51,"beatPct":28,"yoyPct":52},"$13,991 M","$13,870 M",9,{"actual":54,"consensus":21,"beatPct":55},"$0.94",3.3,{"revenue":57,"eps":60,"fullYearLabel":32,"fullYearRevenue":62,"fullYearEps":65},{"company":58,"consensus":59,"beatPct":28},"$14.00 B","$13.87 B",{"company":21,"consensus":30,"beatPct":61},1.1,{"company":63,"consensus":64,"beatPct":18},"$56.25 B","$55.99 B",{"company":66,"consensus":67,"beatPct":40},"$3.71","$3.66",{"reportClose":69,"nextClose":70,"changePct":71},"$62.53","$63.84",2.1,{"quarter":73,"reportDate":74,"event":75,"revenue":76,"eps":80,"guidance":84,"stock":100},"FY25Q3","2025/5/14","AIインフラ受注$600M超でFY25の$1B目標を1四半期前倒しで達成。通年ガイド増額で+4.8%",{"actual":77,"consensus":78,"beatPct":18,"yoyPct":79},"$14,149 M","$14,080 M",11,{"actual":81,"consensus":82,"beatPct":83},"$0.96","$0.92",4.3,{"revenue":85,"eps":89,"fullYearLabel":32,"fullYearRevenue":92,"fullYearEps":96},{"company":86,"consensus":87,"beatPct":88},"$14.60 B","$14.58 B",0.1,{"company":90,"consensus":91,"beatPct":71},"$0.97","$0.95",{"company":93,"consensus":94,"beatPct":95},"$56.60 B","$56.47 B",0.2,{"company":97,"consensus":98,"beatPct":99},"$3.78","n/a",null,{"reportClose":101,"nextClose":102,"changePct":103},"$61.29","$64.26",4.8,{"quarter":105,"reportDate":106,"event":107,"revenue":108,"eps":113,"guidance":117,"stock":130},"FY25Q4","2025/8/13","FY25のAI受注は$2B超と当初目標の倍以上。ただしFY26通年ガイドが市場並みで-1.6%",{"actual":109,"consensus":110,"beatPct":111,"yoyPct":112},"$14,673 M","$14,620 M",0.4,8,{"actual":114,"consensus":115,"beatPct":116},"$0.99","$0.98",1,{"revenue":118,"eps":121,"fullYearLabel":122,"fullYearRevenue":123,"fullYearEps":127},{"company":119,"consensus":120,"beatPct":28},"$14.75 B","$14.62 B",{"company":115,"consensus":90,"beatPct":116},"FY26",{"company":124,"consensus":125,"beatPct":126},"$59.50 B","$59.53 B",-0.1,{"company":128,"consensus":128,"beatPct":129},"$4.03",0,{"reportClose":131,"nextClose":132,"changePct":133},"$70.40","$69.30",-1.6,{"quarter":135,"reportDate":136,"event":137,"revenue":138,"eps":142,"guidance":145,"stock":161},"FY26Q1","2025/11/12","ハイパースケーラー向けAI受注が単四半期$1.3B。次Q・通年ガイドをそろって増額し+4.6%",{"actual":139,"consensus":140,"beatPct":141,"yoyPct":112},"$14,883 M","$14,770 M",0.8,{"actual":143,"consensus":115,"beatPct":144},"$1.00",2,{"revenue":146,"eps":150,"fullYearLabel":122,"fullYearRevenue":153,"fullYearEps":157},{"company":147,"consensus":148,"beatPct":149},"$15.10 B","$14.64 B",3.1,{"company":151,"consensus":114,"beatPct":152},"$1.02",3,{"company":154,"consensus":155,"beatPct":156},"$60.60 B","$59.68 B",1.5,{"company":158,"consensus":159,"beatPct":160},"$4.11","$4.04",1.7,{"reportClose":162,"nextClose":163,"changePct":23},"$73.96","$77.38",{"quarter":165,"reportDate":166,"event":167,"revenue":168,"eps":172,"guidance":174,"stock":188},"FY26Q2","2026/2/11","AI受注$2.1Bと加速も、メモリ価格上昇とミックス悪化で製品粗利率が-130bp。2022年以来の下落率",{"actual":169,"consensus":170,"beatPct":156,"yoyPct":171},"$15,349 M","$15,120 M",10,{"actual":173,"consensus":151,"beatPct":144},"$1.04",{"revenue":175,"eps":178,"fullYearLabel":122,"fullYearRevenue":180,"fullYearEps":184},{"company":176,"consensus":177,"beatPct":71},"$15.50 B","$15.18 B",{"company":179,"consensus":179,"beatPct":129},"$1.03",{"company":181,"consensus":182,"beatPct":183},"$61.45 B","$60.74 B",1.2,{"company":185,"consensus":186,"beatPct":187},"$4.15","$4.12",0.7,{"reportClose":189,"nextClose":190,"changePct":191},"$85.54","$75.00",-12.3,{"quarter":193,"reportDate":194,"event":195,"revenue":196,"eps":201,"guidance":204,"stock":220},"FY26Q3","2026/5/13","FY26のAI受注見通しを約$5B→約$9Bへ引き上げ。次Q売上ガイドが市場予想を約6%上回り+13.4%",{"actual":197,"consensus":198,"beatPct":199,"yoyPct":200},"$15,841 M","$15,560 M",1.8,12,{"actual":202,"consensus":173,"beatPct":203},"$1.06",1.9,{"revenue":205,"eps":209,"fullYearLabel":122,"fullYearRevenue":213,"fullYearEps":216},{"company":206,"consensus":207,"beatPct":208},"$16.80 B","$15.82 B",6.2,{"company":210,"consensus":211,"beatPct":212},"$1.17","$1.07",9.3,{"company":214,"consensus":215,"beatPct":71},"$62.90 B","$61.60 B",{"company":217,"consensus":218,"beatPct":219},"$4.28","$4.16",2.9,{"reportClose":221,"nextClose":222,"changePct":223},"$101.87","$115.53",13.4,{"quarter":225,"reportDate":226,"event":227,"revenue":228,"eps":233,"guidance":235,"stock":253},"FY26Q4","2026/8/12","FY27ガイドは市場予想を約6%上回る大幅増額。だが粗利率の希薄化が嫌気され-8.4%",{"actual":229,"consensus":230,"beatPct":231,"yoyPct":232},"$17,252 M","$16,820 M",2.6,18,{"actual":234,"consensus":210,"beatPct":83},"$1.22",{"revenue":236,"eps":240,"fullYearLabel":244,"fullYearRevenue":245,"fullYearEps":249},{"company":237,"consensus":238,"beatPct":239},"$18.10 B","$16.66 B",8.6,{"company":241,"consensus":242,"beatPct":243},"$1.33","$1.14",16.7,"FY27",{"company":246,"consensus":247,"beatPct":248},"$72.80 B","$68.69 B",6,{"company":250,"consensus":251,"beatPct":252},"$5.08","$4.83",5.2,{"reportClose":254,"nextClose":255,"changePct":256},"$123.88","$113.47",-8.4,[258,259,260,261,262,263,264,265,266,267],"実績は全件 SEC EDGAR の 8-K Exhibit 99.1（CIK 858877）から転記。売上は損益計算書の総売上、EPS は非GAAP希薄化後。コンセンサスは LSEG を第一とし、Zacks / FactSet / Visible Alpha / StreetInsider の各値と突き合わせて採用した。","ガイダンスの列は会社が示したレンジの中央値。Cisco は毎回「次Qの売上・非GAAP EPS」と「通年の売上・非GAAP EPS」の両方を出すため、通年分は fullYear 系のフィールドに入れている。FY25Q4 発表分から通年ガイドの対象が FY25 から FY26 に切り替わる。","FY25Q3 発表時点の通年 EPS コンセンサスは1ソース（Zacks $3.73）しか取れず突き合わせができなかったため n/a とした。推定では埋めていない。","コンセンサスはプロバイダ間で1〜2セントの差がある。FY25Q2 の次Q EPS は StreetInsider $0.90 と Zacks $0.89 に割れており、より広く報じられた $0.90 を採用した。FY25Q3・FY25Q4 の実績 EPS も LSEG と Zacks で1セント違い、いずれも LSEG を採っている。","FY26Q4 発表時の FY27 コンセンサスは LSEG $68.69B・FactSet $69.1B / EPS $4.83 と割れていた。LSEG を採ると通年売上ガイドの上回り幅は+6.0%となり、当時「ガイドはコンセンサスを約6%上回る」と報じられた水準に一致する。なお Investing.com の自動生成記事は FY27 コンセンサスを $62.91B / $4.28 と書いているが、これは FY26 の数値の取り違えなので採用していない。","株式分割は2000年3月以来なし。EPS・株価は全期間そのまま比較できる（FY2026 10-K に分割の記載がないこと、Nasdaq のコーポレートアクション履歴に分割レコードがないことで確認）。","8四半期すべて引け後（AMC）発表。発表日終値は当日のRTH終値、翌日終値はその翌営業日のRTH終値。全16点を Nasdaq 公式ヒストリカルデータで照合し、全件一致を確認している。","AI インフラ受注は FY25Q1 のプレスリリースに記載がないため n/a。FY25Q2〜Q4 は「$350M超」「$600M超」「$800M超」という下限表記であって正確な金額ではない。FY26Q3 の $1.9B は会社開示の年度累計 $5.3B から Q1・Q2 の開示額を引いた差分で、Q4 の $4.0B を足すと通年開示値 $9.3B に一致する。","製品受注の前年同期比は、FY25Q1〜Q3 は Splunk 買収の影響を除いた会社公表値（総額はそれぞれ+20%・+29%・+20%）。FY25Q4 以降は Splunk が前年ベースに入るため会社公表値をそのまま使っている。","FY26 の AI 受注目標は決算説明会で段階的に示された。2025年8月（FY25Q4）は金額を示さず、2025年11月に「FY25 の2倍以上」、2026年2月に「$5B 超」、2026年5月のリリースで「約$9B」へ引き上げ、通年実績は $9.3B だった。プレスリリースに載るのは2026年5月以降の数字だけで、それ以前は決算説明会が出典。","FY26Q4（2026年8月12日発表）は、AI 需要が売上を押し上げる力と粗利率を削る力が同じ四半期に出た決算である。売上 $17.25B は前年同期比+18%でコンセンサス $16.82B を2.6%上回り、非GAAP EPS $1.22 も $1.17 を4.3%上回った。FY27 通年ガイドも売上 $72.2〜73.4B・非GAAP EPS $5.05〜5.11 と、コンセンサス（LSEG 集計 $68.69B / $4.83）を約6%上回る水準で示している。ハイパースケーラー向け AI インフラ受注は Q4 単独で $4B、FY26 通年で $9.3B に達し、期初に会社が置いていた「FY25 の2倍以上」という目安を大きく超えた。それでも翌日の株価は-8.4%下げた。理由は粗利率で、非GAAP粗利率は 66.3% と前年同期の 68.4% から2.1ポイント低く、Q1 FY27 のガイドは 65〜66% と市場想定の 66.1% をさらに下回る。ハイパースケーラー向けの案件は金額こそ大きいが粗利率が低く、メモリ価格の上昇も重なる。5月決算からの+68%という上昇で期待が先行していたこともあり、「増収増益の幅は大きいが中身が薄い」と読まれた四半期だった。",[270,273,276,279,282,285,288,291,294,297,300,303,306,309,312,315,318],{"label":271,"url":272},"Cisco FY2026 Q4 8-K Ex-99.1 (SEC)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858877/000085887726000106/exhibit991pressrelease-q4f.htm",{"label":274,"url":275},"Cisco FY2026 Q3 8-K Ex-99.1 (SEC)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858877/000085887726000075/exhibit991pressrelease-q3f.htm",{"label":277,"url":278},"Cisco FY2026 Q2 8-K Ex-99.1 (SEC)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858877/000085887726000006/exhibit991pressrelease-q2f.htm",{"label":280,"url":281},"Cisco FY2026 Q1 8-K Ex-99.1 (SEC)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858877/000119312525277624/d484663dex991.htm",{"label":283,"url":284},"Cisco FY2025 Q4 8-K Ex-99.1 (SEC)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858877/000119312525179820/d901470dex991.htm",{"label":286,"url":287},"Cisco FY2025 Q3 8-K Ex-99.1 (SEC)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858877/000119312525119864/d946014dex991.htm",{"label":289,"url":290},"Cisco FY2025 Q2 8-K Ex-99.1 (SEC)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858877/000119312525025114/d851168dex991.htm",{"label":292,"url":293},"Cisco FY2025 Q1 8-K Ex-99.1 (SEC)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858877/000119312524257224/d875468dex991.htm",{"label":295,"url":296},"Cisco FY2026 Form 10-K（発行済株式数・分割の有無）","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858877/000085887726000132/csco-20260725.htm",{"label":298,"url":299},"CNBC: Cisco FY26Q4 決算（LSEG コンセンサス）","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/12/ciscos-stock-drops-despite-earnings-revenue-beat.html",{"label":301,"url":302},"MarketWatch: 粗利率懸念で Cisco 株下落、アナリストの見方","https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2026081389/cisco-stock-falls-on-margin-concerns-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-are-saying",{"label":304,"url":305},"CNBC: Cisco FY26Q2、メモリ価格で2022年以来の下落率","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/12/cisco-stock-has-worst-day-since-2022-as-memory-prices-pressure-margins.html",{"label":307,"url":308},"CNBC: Cisco FY26Q3 決算（LSEG コンセンサス）","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/13/cisco-csco-q3-earnings-report-2026.html",{"label":310,"url":311},"CNBC: Cisco FY26Q1 決算（LSEG コンセンサス）","https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/12/cisco-csco-q1-2026-earnings-report.html",{"label":313,"url":314},"Cisco「AI Impact on Wide Area Networks」レポート（450%の出典）","https://www.cisco.com/c/dam/en/us/solutions/collateral/artificial-intelligence/mass-scale-infrastructure/ai-network-traffic-report.pdf",{"label":316,"url":317},"Cisco Blog: Navigating the Frontier of Agentic AI（WAN トラフィック見通し）","https://blogs.cisco.com/news/navigating-the-frontier-of-agentic-ai",{"label":319,"url":320},"Cisco、Splunk 買収完了（2024/3/18・約280億ドル）","https://newsroom.cisco.com/c/r/newsroom/en/us/a/y2024/m03/cisco-completes-acquisition-of-splunk.html",{"date":322,"close":323},"2026-09-04","$109.20",[325,361,397],{"key":326,"title":327,"unit":328,"kind":329,"description":330,"points":331,"source":360},"aiInfraOrders","ハイパースケーラー向け AI インフラ受注（$B）","$B","bar","四半期ごとの受注額。FY25 通年で $2B 超、FY26 通年では $9.3B と4.6倍になった。FY25 は下限表記（「$350M超」等）、FY26Q3 は累計開示からの差分である点に注意。",[332,335,339,343,346,350,353,356],{"quarter":12,"value":99,"label":333,"note":334},"非開示","この四半期のプレスリリースには AI インフラ受注の記載がない",{"quarter":46,"value":336,"label":337,"note":338},0.35,"$0.35B超","1H FY25 累計は約 $0.7B",{"quarter":73,"value":340,"label":341,"note":342},0.6,"$0.6B超","年度累計が $1B を超え、FY25 目標を1四半期前倒しで達成",{"quarter":105,"value":141,"label":344,"note":345},"$0.8B超","FY25 通年 $2B 超。当初目標 $1B の2倍以上",{"quarter":135,"value":347,"label":348,"note":349},1.3,"$1.3B","呼称が webscale から hyperscaler へ。通年は「FY25 の2倍以上」と説明",{"quarter":165,"value":71,"label":351,"note":352},"$2.1B","通年見通しを初めて金額で示し「$5B 超」とした",{"quarter":193,"value":203,"label":354,"note":355},"$1.9B","年度累計 $5.3B の開示からの差分。通年見通しを約 $9B へ引き上げ",{"quarter":225,"value":357,"label":358,"note":359},4,"$4.0B","FY26 通年 $9.3B。AI 売上は FY26 約 $4B、FY27 は $7.5B を見込む",{"label":271,"url":272},{"key":362,"title":363,"unit":364,"kind":365,"description":366,"points":367,"source":396},"nonGaapGrossMargin","非GAAP粗利率（四半期実績, %）","%","line","AI 受注が伸びるほど粗利率は下がる。8四半期で 69.3%→66.3% と3ポイント低下し、Q1 FY27 の会社ガイドは 65〜66% とさらに下。実績がコンセンサスを上回りながら株価が下げた FY26Q2・FY26Q4 は、いずれもこの線が折れた四半期にあたる。",[368,371,374,377,380,384,388,392],{"quarter":12,"value":369,"label":370},69.3,"69.3%",{"quarter":46,"value":372,"label":373},68.7,"68.7%",{"quarter":73,"value":375,"label":376},68.6,"68.6%",{"quarter":105,"value":378,"label":379},68.4,"68.4%",{"quarter":135,"value":381,"label":382,"note":383},68.1,"68.1%","次Qガイドは 67.5〜68.5%",{"quarter":165,"value":385,"label":386,"note":387},67.5,"67.5%","次Qガイドを 65.5〜66.5% へ2ポイント引き下げ。製品粗利率は前年比-130bp",{"quarter":193,"value":389,"label":390,"note":391},66,"66.0%","次Qガイドは 65.5〜66.5% で据え置き",{"quarter":225,"value":393,"label":394,"note":395},66.3,"66.3%","Q1 FY27 ガイドは 65〜66%。市場想定 66.1% を下回った",{"label":271,"url":272},{"key":398,"title":399,"unit":364,"kind":365,"description":400,"points":401,"source":425},"productOrderGrowth","製品受注 前年同期比（%）","売上より先に動く需要指標。FY25Q4 の+7%を底に +13%→+18%→+35% と加速した。会社はこれを「ネットワーキングのスーパーサイクル」と呼ぶ。FY25Q1〜Q3 は Splunk の影響を除いた値。",[402,405,408,409,413,416,419,423],{"quarter":12,"value":52,"label":403,"note":404},"+9%","Splunk 込みでは+20%",{"quarter":46,"value":79,"label":406,"note":407},"+11%","Splunk 込みでは+29%",{"quarter":73,"value":52,"label":403,"note":404},{"quarter":105,"value":410,"label":411,"note":412},7,"+7%","Splunk が前年ベースに入り、以降は会社公表値がそのまま比較可能",{"quarter":135,"value":414,"label":415},13,"+13%",{"quarter":165,"value":232,"label":417,"note":418},"+18%","ネットワーキング製品受注は+20%超",{"quarter":193,"value":420,"label":421,"note":422},35,"+35%","ハイパースケーラーを除いても+19%。ネットワーキングは+50%超",{"quarter":225,"value":420,"label":421,"note":424},"ハイパースケーラーを除いても+25%。ネットワーキングは+40%で8四半期連続の2桁成長",{"label":271,"url":272},"https://log.eurekapu.com/og/pages/general/beat-monitoring-CSCO.png?title=CSCO%20Cisco%20Systems%20-%20%E3%83%93%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88%E3%83%A2%E3%83%8B%E3%82%BF%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B0&sig=c65bb88d5674e1c8",1788996984982]