[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":273},["ShallowReactive",2],{"triple-beat-ASML":3,"og-beat-monitoring-ASML":272},{"ticker":4,"name":5,"description":6,"revenueLabel":7,"epsLabel":8,"guidanceLabel":9,"stockLabel":10,"quarters":11,"tableNotes":191,"highlightQuarter":166,"highlightDescription":202,"sources":203,"latestStock":270},"ASML","ASML Holding","EUV露光装置の世界唯一の供給者（オランダ・フェルトホーヘン、NASDAQ ADR）。TSMC・Samsung・Intelの先端ロジックとHBM向けDRAMの微細化はASMLのEUV/High-NA EUVに依存する。2024/10のQ3 FY24は純受注がコンセンサスの半分以下となりADR-16.3%の急落、2025年は関税・中国比率低下の不確実性で「好決算でも売られる」展開（Q2 FY25は3拍子ビートでも『2026年成長は確約できない』発言で-8.3%）が続いた。転機はQ4 FY25 (2026/1) の過去最高受注€13.2B（予想の2倍超）で、AI起点のEUV需要への確信が復活。2026年は通年ガイダンスを年初€34–39B→4月€36–40B→7月€43–45Bと2回引き上げ、低NA EUV生産能力を2027年に+30%増強へ。株価は2025/4安値圏の$635から2026/7の$1,776へ約2.8倍。","売上 (€)","EPS (€, US GAAP 基本。Non-GAAP調整なし)","次Q売上ガイド (midpoint, €B)","株価反応 (NASDAQ ADR, $)",[12,39,58,79,100,120,145,165],{"quarter":13,"reportDate":14,"event":15,"revenue":16,"eps":21,"guidance":25,"stock":35},"Q3 FY24","2024/10/15","純受注€2.63Bがコンセンサス（VA €5.39B）の半分以下の大ミス、FY25通年ガイドを従来レンジ€30–40Bから€30–35Bへ引き下げ。技術的エラーで予定より1日早く公表され、ADR-16.3%急落・半導体全面安の引き金に",{"actual":17,"consensus":18,"beatPct":19,"yoyPct":20},"€7.47 B","€7.17 B",4.1,11.9,{"actual":22,"consensus":23,"beatPct":24},"€5.28","n/a",null,{"revenue":26,"eps":24,"fullYearRevenue":30,"fullYearLabel":34},{"company":27,"consensus":28,"beatPct":29},"€9.00 B","€8.95 B",0.6,{"company":31,"consensus":32,"beatPct":33},"€32.50 B","€35.94 B",-9.6,"FY25",{"reportClose":36,"nextClose":37,"changePct":38},"$872.27","$730.43",-16.3,{"quarter":40,"reportDate":41,"event":42,"revenue":43,"eps":48,"guidance":50,"stock":54},"Q4 FY24","2025/1/29","純受注€7.09BがVA予想€3.99Bの1.8倍と大幅ビート。DeepSeekショック2日後の「AI設備投資は続くのか」への回答となり安心材料に（ADR+4.3%）。FY25ガイド€30–35Bは据え置き",{"actual":44,"consensus":45,"beatPct":46,"yoyPct":47},"€9.26 B","€9.07 B",2.1,28,{"actual":49,"consensus":23,"beatPct":24},"€6.85",{"revenue":51,"eps":24,"fullYearRevenue":53,"fullYearLabel":34},{"company":52,"consensus":23,"beatPct":24},"€7.75 B",{"company":31,"consensus":23,"beatPct":24},{"reportClose":55,"nextClose":56,"changePct":57},"$683.35","$712.65",4.3,{"quarter":59,"reportDate":60,"event":61,"revenue":62,"eps":67,"guidance":69,"stock":75},"Q1 FY25","2025/4/16","売上・純利益は予想線上も、純受注€3.94Bが予想€4.89Bを19%下回り、Q2ガイド中点€7.45Bも当時予想€7.73B未達。トランプ関税による需要の不確実性をCEOが警告しADR-7.1%",{"actual":63,"consensus":64,"beatPct":65,"yoyPct":66},"€7.74 B","€7.80 B",-0.7,46.4,{"actual":68,"consensus":23,"beatPct":24},"€6.00",{"revenue":70,"eps":24,"fullYearRevenue":74,"fullYearLabel":34},{"company":71,"consensus":72,"beatPct":73},"€7.45 B","€7.73 B",-3.6,{"company":31,"consensus":23,"beatPct":24},{"reportClose":76,"nextClose":77,"changePct":78},"$683.16","$634.93",-7.1,{"quarter":80,"reportDate":81,"event":82,"revenue":83,"eps":88,"guidance":90,"stock":96},"Q2 FY25","2025/7/16","売上・純利益・純受注（€5.54B、予想+25%）の3拍子ビートも、CEOが「2026年の成長は現段階で確約できない」と関税・地政学を理由に翌年成長を保留、Q3ガイド中点も当時予想€8.3B未達。好決算でもADR-8.3%（アムステルダム-11%）",{"actual":84,"consensus":85,"beatPct":86,"yoyPct":87},"€7.69 B","€7.52 B",2.3,23.2,{"actual":89,"consensus":23,"beatPct":24},"€5.90",{"revenue":91,"eps":24,"fullYearRevenue":95,"fullYearLabel":34},{"company":92,"consensus":93,"beatPct":94},"€7.65 B","€8.30 B",-7.8,{"company":31,"consensus":23,"beatPct":24},{"reportClose":97,"nextClose":98,"changePct":99},"$823.02","$754.45",-8.3,{"quarter":101,"reportDate":102,"event":103,"revenue":104,"eps":108,"guidance":112,"stock":116},"Q3 FY25","2025/10/15","売上€7.52Bは自社ガイダンス内もLSEG予想€7.79B未達、EPSは小幅ビート。純受注€5.4Bが予想を上回り、「2026年売上は2025年を下回らない」と初言及してADR+2.7%。中国売上の2026年大幅減を警告",{"actual":85,"consensus":105,"beatPct":106,"yoyPct":107},"€7.79 B",-3.5,0.7,{"actual":109,"consensus":110,"beatPct":111},"€5.49","€5.42",1.3,{"revenue":113,"eps":24,"fullYearRevenue":115,"fullYearLabel":34},{"company":114,"consensus":23,"beatPct":24},"€9.50 B",{"company":31,"consensus":23,"beatPct":24},{"reportClose":117,"nextClose":118,"changePct":119},"$983.18","$1009.81",2.7,{"quarter":121,"reportDate":122,"event":123,"revenue":124,"eps":129,"guidance":133,"stock":141},"Q4 FY25","2026/1/28","純受注€13.2B（うちEUV €7.4B）が予想€6.32Bの2倍超の過去最高、High-NA 2台も初めて売上計上。FY26ガイド€34–39Bを新規提示（コンセンサス€35.1B超え）。1,700人削減も発表。欧州株は日中一時+7.5%もADR終値は-2.2%",{"actual":125,"consensus":126,"beatPct":127,"yoyPct":128},"€9.72 B","€9.60 B",1.2,4.9,{"actual":130,"consensus":131,"beatPct":132},"€7.35","€7.58",-3,{"revenue":134,"eps":24,"fullYearRevenue":136,"fullYearLabel":140},{"company":135,"consensus":23,"beatPct":24},"€8.55 B",{"company":137,"consensus":138,"beatPct":139},"€36.50 B","€35.10 B",4,"FY26",{"reportClose":142,"nextClose":143,"changePct":144},"$1454.59","$1422.92",-2.2,{"quarter":146,"reportDate":147,"event":148,"revenue":149,"eps":154,"guidance":156,"stock":161},"Q1 FY26","2026/4/15","売上+3.1%・純利益+12%ビート、FY26ガイドを€36–40Bへ引き上げ。ただし対中DUV輸出規制強化の米議会法案と中国売上比率の急低下（前Q36%→19%）を嫌気しADR-2.4%（翌日も-4.8%と続落）。この四半期から四半期bookings開示を廃止",{"actual":150,"consensus":151,"beatPct":152,"yoyPct":153},"€8.77 B","€8.50 B",3.1,13.2,{"actual":155,"consensus":23,"beatPct":24},"€7.15",{"revenue":157,"eps":24,"fullYearRevenue":159,"fullYearLabel":140},{"company":158,"consensus":23,"beatPct":24},"€8.70 B",{"company":160,"consensus":23,"beatPct":24},"€38.00 B",{"reportClose":162,"nextClose":163,"changePct":164},"$1518.30","$1481.77",-2.4,{"quarter":166,"reportDate":167,"event":168,"revenue":169,"eps":174,"guidance":178,"stock":187},"Q2 FY26","2026/7/15","売上€9.33B・粗利率54.0%とも自社ガイド超え、EPS+10.2%ビート。Q3ガイド€11–12Bは予想€10.1B超え、FY26を€43–45Bへ再引き上げ（コンセンサス+11.7%）。AI需要を理由に低NA EUV生産能力を2027年+30%・2028年さらに+30%検討と表明。時間外+1.7%（暫定）",{"actual":170,"consensus":171,"beatPct":172,"yoyPct":173},"€9.33 B","€8.91 B",4.7,21.2,{"actual":175,"consensus":176,"beatPct":177},"€7.59","€6.89",10.2,{"revenue":179,"eps":24,"fullYearRevenue":183,"fullYearLabel":140},{"company":180,"consensus":181,"beatPct":182},"€11.50 B","€10.10 B",13.9,{"company":184,"consensus":185,"beatPct":186},"€44.00 B","€39.40 B",11.7,{"reportClose":188,"nextClose":189,"changePct":190},"$1775.64","$1806.43",1.7,[192,193,194,195,196,197,198,199,200,201],"通貨: 実績・コンセンサス・ガイダンスは€（ユーロ）、株価はNASDAQ ADR（USD）。ASMLは欧州時間の朝（米国市場プレマーケット）に発表するため、reportClose=発表前営業日の終値、nextClose=発表当日の終値。","実績はSEC 6-K（pressreleasequarterlyresul.htm）とASML/GlobeNewswireプレスリリースの2系統で照合。EPSはUS GAAP基本（basic）EPS。ASMLはNon-GAAP調整を行わず、EPSガイダンスも出さない（全四半期 guidance.eps=null）。四半期ガイダンスは売上レンジ＋粗利率レンジで提示され、本表はレンジ中点を採用。","コンセンサスはLSEG（CNBC報道）/ Visible Alpha（Reuters系報道）/ Investing.com 等の当時（point-in-time）報道値。€建ての当時EPSコンセンサスが報道から取れない四半期（Q3 FY24〜Q2 FY25、Q1 FY26）は n/a（純利益コンセンサス比では Q4 FY24 +2.0% / Q1 FY25 +2.4% / Q2 FY25 +12.3% / Q1 FY26 +12% のビート）。Q1 FY26で複数サイトに出回る「EPS予想€6.00」は前年同期実績EPSの混入と判定し不採用。","Q3 FY24のQ4ガイド予想€8.95BとFY25通年予想€35.94BはTMTPost（当時報道）の値（売上コンセンサス€7.17BはStreetInsiderのUSD建て$7.9Bと換算整合を確認）。Q3 FY25のQ4ガイド対象コンセンサスは€建てpoint-in-time値が取れず n/a。","ASMLの株価は純受注（net bookings）で動くことが多い。bookings実績: Q3 FY24 €2.63B（予想€5.39Bの半分以下・-16.3%急落）→ Q4 FY24 €7.09B（予想の1.8倍）→ Q1 FY25 €3.94B（-19%ミス）→ Q2 FY25 €5.54B（+25%）→ Q3 FY25 €5.40B（小幅超え）→ Q4 FY25 €13.2B（過去最高・予想€6.32Bの2倍超）。Q1 FY26（2026/4発表）から四半期bookings開示は廃止（大型受注の偏りが実勢を歪めるためと会社説明）。","Q3 FY24は予定（10/16）より1日早い10/15に公表（サイトの技術的エラーによる誤掲載）。","Q4 FY25・Q1 FY26は欧州上場株の日中騰落（+7.5%/−6%級）とADR終値ベース（-2.2%/-2.4%）が乖離して報道された。本表はADR終値ベースで統一。","Q2 FY26（2026/7/15発表）のnextClose $1806.43 / +1.7%は米市場開場前の時間外気配の暫定値。RTH終値確定後にKoyfinで上書き予定。latestStockも同じ暫定値。","株価はYahoo Finance chart APIとNasdaq公式API/stockanalysis.comの2ソースで全営業日の終値一致を確認し、changePctは終値から自己計算して報道の騰落率と整合検証済み。","チャート末尾の『予想（NTMコンセンサス）』列とバリュエーションカード（株価/NTM EPS/フォワードPER）はKoyfin由来のUSD建て（NASDAQ ADR基準）。実績・ガイダンス列の€建てとは通貨が異なるため、実績列と予想列をまたぐ水準・QoQ比較は参考値。","Q2 FY26（2026/7/15発表）は、Q4 FY25の過去最高受注€13.2Bで点火した「AI起点のEUV需要再加速」ストーリーの答え合わせとなった四半期。売上€9.33B（コンセンサス+4.7%・自社ガイドレンジ上限€9.0B超え）・粗利率54.0%（ガイド51–52%超え）・EPS €7.59（+10.2%）と全面ビートし、Q3ガイダンス€11–12B（中点€11.5B）は当時コンセンサス€10.1Bを+13.9%上回った。FY2026通年ガイダンスは€43–45Bへ再引き上げ（年初€34–39B→4月€36–40B→7月€43–45Bの2段ロケット、発表前コンセンサス€39.4B比+11.7%）。さらに低NA EUV生産能力を2027年に+30%（2026年約65台基準）、2028年にさらに+30%の検討を表明し、2024/10の受注ショック（-16.3%）と2025年の「好決算でも売られる」局面からの構造的な転換を確定させつつある。確証（数四半期のビート継続と株価反応の一様化）が揃えば構造転換済みへの昇格候補。",[204,207,210,213,216,219,222,225,228,231,234,237,240,243,246,249,252,255,258,261,264,267],{"label":205,"url":206},"ASML Q3 2024 Press Release (GlobeNewswire, 2024/10/15)","https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/10/15/2963456/0/en/ASML-reports-7-5-billion-total-net-sales-and-2-1-billion-net-income-in-Q3-2024.html",{"label":208,"url":209},"ASML Q3 2024 6-K (SEC)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/937966/000093796624000022/pressreleasequarterlyresul.htm",{"label":211,"url":212},"CNBC: ASML Q3 2024（1日早い公表・-16%急落）","https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/15/chip-firm-asml-shares-fall-12percent-after-earnings-released-earlier-than-expected.html",{"label":214,"url":215},"TMTPost: ASML Q3 2024（当時コンセンサス€7.17B/€8.95B/€35.94B）","https://en.tmtpost.com/post/7286625",{"label":217,"url":218},"StreetInsider: ASML Q3 2024 bookings miss","https://www.streetinsider.com/Earnings/ASML+shares+plunge+as+Q3+net+bookings+miss+estimates,+outlook+disappoints/23836836.html",{"label":220,"url":221},"ASML FY2024/Q4 Press Release (GlobeNewswire, 2025/1/29)","https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/01/29/3016895/0/en/ASML-reports-28-3-billion-total-net-sales-and-7-6-billion-net-income-in-2024.html",{"label":223,"url":224},"CNBC: ASML Q4 2024（bookings €7.09B vs VA €3.99B・DeepSeek文脈）","https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/29/asml-earnings-report-q4-2024.html",{"label":226,"url":227},"ASML Q1 2025 Press Release","https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2025/q1-2025-financial-results",{"label":229,"url":230},"CNBC: ASML Q1 2025（bookings miss・関税警告）","https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/16/critical-chip-firm-asml-posts-lower-than-expected-net-bookings-in-first-quarter.html",{"label":232,"url":233},"ASML Q2 2025 Press Release","https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2025/q2-2025-financial-results",{"label":235,"url":236},"CNBC: ASML Q2 2025（『2026年成長を確約できない』）","https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/16/asml-q2-2025-earnings-report.html",{"label":238,"url":239},"Fortune: ASML Q2 2025（時価総額$30B消失）","https://fortune.com/2025/07/16/asml-cannot-confirm-growth-in-2026-wiping-out-30-billion/",{"label":241,"url":242},"ASML Q3 2025 Press Release (GlobeNewswire, 2025/10/15)","https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/10/15/3166781/0/en/ASML-reports-7-5-billion-total-net-sales-and-2-1-billion-net-income-in-Q3-2025.html",{"label":244,"url":245},"CNBC: ASML Q3 2025（売上miss・『2026は2025を下回らない』）","https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/15/asml-q3-earnings-report.html",{"label":247,"url":248},"ASML FY2025/Q4 Press Release (GlobeNewswire, 2026/1/28)","https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/01/28/3227191/0/en/ASML-reports-32-7-billion-total-net-sales-and-9-6-billion-net-income-in-2025.html",{"label":250,"url":251},"CNBC: ASML Q4 2025（bookings €13.2B vs VA €6.32B）","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/28/asml-q4-2025-earnings-report.html",{"label":253,"url":254},"ASML Q1 2026 Press Release","https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2026/q1-2026-financial-results",{"label":256,"url":257},"CNBC: ASML Q1 2026（FY26ガイド引き上げ・対中規制懸念）","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/asml-q1-2026-earnings-report.html",{"label":259,"url":260},"ASML Q2 2026 Press Release (2026/7/15)","https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2026/q2-2026-financial-results",{"label":262,"url":263},"StockTitan: ASML Q2 2026（€9.3B/GM54.0%/FY26 €43–45B）","https://www.stocktitan.net/news/ASML/asml-reports-9-3-billion-total-net-sales-and-2-9-billion-net-income-7ycaa74al32x.html",{"label":265,"url":266},"Investing.com: ASML Q2 2026 outlook tops on AI demand","https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/asml-q2-outlook-tops-on-ai-chip-demand-lifts-fullyear-forecast-4792148",{"label":268,"url":269},"stockanalysis.com: ASML（株価履歴・時価総額$685B）","https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ASML/",{"date":271,"close":189},"2026-07-15","https://log.eurekapu.com/og/pages/general/beat-monitoring-ASML.png?title=ASML%20ASML%20Holding%20-%20%E3%83%93%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88%E3%83%A2%E3%83%8B%E3%82%BF%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B0&sig=9df794ef265bc2b1",1784186917484]