[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":209},["ShallowReactive",2],{"triple-beat-AMZN":3,"og-beat-monitoring-AMZN":208},{"ticker":4,"name":5,"description":6,"epsLabel":7,"guidanceLabel":8,"stockLabel":9,"quarters":10,"tableNotes":142,"highlightQuarter":122,"highlightDescription":152,"sources":153,"latestStock":205},"AMZN","Amazon","Amazon.com（AMZN）は世界最大のEC事業者であり、クラウド（AWS）・広告・小売・物流・デバイス・スタジオを束ねる総合プラットフォーマー。決算上の主役はAWSと広告で、AWSはAI需要（特にAnthropic向けの『Project Rainier』含む）を背景にQ4 2024の$28.8B（+19%）→Q1 2026の$37.6B（+28%）まで4四半期連続で成長率を再加速させた。広告事業も+18〜24%レンジで二桁成長を継続し四半期$17〜21B規模に到達。次Q売上ガイダンスは『net sales range + operating income range』のみで、EPSガイドは出さない方針。Capex（主にAI/AWSデータセンター）はFY24 約$83B→FY25 約$132B→FY26 約$200Bへ膨張し、フリーキャッシュフロー圧迫が一貫した懸念材料となっている。決算ヘッドラインのビート幅は売上+0〜3%・GAAP EPSは+15〜25%超（Anthropic投資のmark-to-market益が嵩上げするQあり）が中心。株価反応はQ4 FY24の-4%（capexショック）、Q2 FY25の-8%（OpInc guideが軽い）、Q3 FY25の+9.6%（AWS+20%再加速）、Q4 FY25の-5.5%（FY26 capex $200B宣言）、Q1 FY26の+0.8%（Anthropic益で利益急増もcapex織り込み済み）と『AWS再加速 vs capex/フリーCF』のせめぎ合いで決まる構図。","EPS ($, GAAP 希薄化後)","次Q売上ガイド (midpoint, $B)","株価反応 ($)",[11,34,56,78,100,121],{"quarter":12,"reportDate":13,"event":14,"revenue":15,"eps":20,"guidance":24,"stock":30},"Q4 FY24","2025/2/6","売上$187.79B（+10.5% YoY、コンセ+0.3%）、GAAP EPS$1.86でEPSは大幅ビート。AWSは$28.8B(+19%)で前Qから減速、広告は$17.3B(+18%)。次Q売上ガイド$151-$155.5B（midpoint$153.25B）はコンセ$158.5Bを大幅下回り、加えて2025年capexを~$100B（vs FY24 $83B）に引き上げ宣言で翌日-4.05%",{"actual":16,"consensus":17,"beatPct":18,"yoyPct":19},"$187.79 B","$187.23 B",0.3,10.5,{"actual":21,"consensus":22,"beatPct":23},"$1.86","$1.48",25.7,{"revenue":25,"eps":29},{"company":26,"consensus":27,"beatPct":28},"$153.25 B","$158.50 B",-3.3,null,{"reportClose":31,"nextClose":32,"changePct":33},"$238.83","$229.15",-4.05,{"quarter":35,"reportDate":36,"event":37,"revenue":38,"eps":43,"guidance":47,"stock":52},"Q1 FY25","2025/5/1","売上$155.67B（+8.6% YoY、コンセ+0.4%）、GAAP EPS$1.59。AWSは$29.3B(+17%、15Q高で底打ち反転)、広告$13.9B(+18%)。次Q売上ガイド$159-$164B（midpoint$161.5B、コンセ$162.15B比-0.4%）、OpIncガイド$13.0-$17.5B（コンセ~$17.6B比軽め、関税不確実性とPrime Dayシフトが理由）。AHは下げ翌日RTHはほぼ横ばい-0.1%",{"actual":39,"consensus":40,"beatPct":41,"yoyPct":42},"$155.67 B","$155.04 B",0.4,8.6,{"actual":44,"consensus":45,"beatPct":46},"$1.59","$1.37",16.1,{"revenue":48,"eps":29},{"company":49,"consensus":50,"beatPct":51},"$161.50 B","$162.15 B",-0.4,{"reportClose":53,"nextClose":54,"changePct":55},"$190.20","$189.98",-0.1,{"quarter":57,"reportDate":58,"event":59,"revenue":60,"eps":65,"guidance":69,"stock":74},"Q2 FY25","2025/7/31","売上$167.7B（+13.3% YoY、コンセ+3.5%）、GAAP EPS$1.68と全項目ビート。AWS$30.9B(+17.5%)、広告$15.7B(+23%)。次Q売上ガイド$174-$179.5B（midpoint$176.75B、コンセ$173.1B比+2.1%）と上振れも、OpIncガイド$15.5-$20.5B（midpoint$18.0B、PY$17.4Bからほぼ横ばい）がAI capex膨張で軽いと嫌気され翌日-8.27%",{"actual":61,"consensus":62,"beatPct":63,"yoyPct":64},"$167.70 B","$162.09 B",3.5,13.3,{"actual":66,"consensus":67,"beatPct":68},"$1.68","$1.33",26.3,{"revenue":70,"eps":29},{"company":71,"consensus":72,"beatPct":73},"$176.75 B","$173.10 B",2.1,{"reportClose":75,"nextClose":76,"changePct":77},"$234.11","$214.75",-8.27,{"quarter":79,"reportDate":80,"event":81,"revenue":82,"eps":87,"guidance":91,"stock":96},"Q3 FY25","2025/10/30","売上$180.17B（+13.4% YoY、コンセ+1.3%）、GAAP EPS$1.95。AWSが$33.0B(+20.2%)と2022年以来最速に再加速、AWSバックログ$200B、10月のAI新規受注がQ3全体を上回る、Anthropic専用のProject Rainier（$11B）稼働。広告$17.7B(+24%)。次Q売上ガイド$206-$213B（midpoint$209.5B、コンセ$208.0B比+0.7%）。2025 capexは$118B→$125Bへ引き上げ、CFO『2026も増加』と示唆。翌日+9.59%",{"actual":83,"consensus":84,"beatPct":85,"yoyPct":86},"$180.17 B","$177.80 B",1.3,13.4,{"actual":88,"consensus":89,"beatPct":90},"$1.95","$1.57",24.2,{"revenue":92,"eps":29},{"company":93,"consensus":94,"beatPct":95},"$209.50 B","$208.00 B",0.7,{"reportClose":97,"nextClose":98,"changePct":99},"$222.86","$244.22",9.59,{"quarter":101,"reportDate":102,"event":103,"revenue":104,"eps":109,"guidance":112,"stock":117},"Q4 FY25","2026/2/5","売上$213.39B（+13% YoY、コンセ+0.9%）、GAAP EPS$1.95は$1.96コンセに対しほぼインライン。AWSは$35.6B(+24%)で13Q高に加速、広告$21.3B(+23%)。次Q売上ガイド$173.5-$178.5B（midpoint$176.0B、コンセ$177.3B比-0.7%）とほぼインラインだが、FY25実績capex $131.8B → FY26 ~$200B（+53%）と異例の超大型capex宣言で翌日-5.55%",{"actual":105,"consensus":106,"beatPct":107,"yoyPct":108},"$213.39 B","$211.49 B",0.9,13,{"actual":88,"consensus":110,"beatPct":111},"$1.96",-0.5,{"revenue":113,"eps":29},{"company":114,"consensus":115,"beatPct":116},"$176.00 B","$177.30 B",-0.7,{"reportClose":118,"nextClose":119,"changePct":120},"$222.69","$210.32",-5.55,{"quarter":122,"reportDate":123,"event":124,"revenue":125,"eps":129,"guidance":133,"stock":138},"Q1 FY26","2026/4/29","売上$181.52B（+17% YoY、コンセ+2.4%）、GAAP EPS$2.78（コンセ$1.64比+69%ビート、ただしAnthropic投資のmark-to-market益$16.8B税前が含まれ実質ベースは数字ほど派手ではない）。AWSは$37.6B(+28%、15Q高に再々加速、OpIncマージン37.7%)、AWSバックログ$364B、Bedrockトークン量が四半期で過去累計超え。広告$17.24B(+24%)。次Q売上ガイド$194-$199B（midpoint$196.5B、コンセ$188.7B比+4.1%）と大幅上振れ、OpIncガイド$20-$24B。Q1 capex $44.2B（vs PY $25B）でFY26 ~$200B+ペースを確認。翌日+0.77%と反応は薄く、capexは既に織り込み済み",{"actual":126,"consensus":115,"beatPct":127,"yoyPct":128},"$181.52 B",2.4,17,{"actual":130,"consensus":131,"beatPct":132},"$2.78","$1.64",69.5,{"revenue":134,"eps":29},{"company":135,"consensus":136,"beatPct":137},"$196.50 B","$188.70 B",4.1,{"reportClose":139,"nextClose":140,"changePct":141},"$263.04","$265.06",0.77,[143,144,145,146,147,148,149,150,151],"Amazonは会計年度=暦年（FY24=2024/1〜2024/12、四半期は3月末・6月末・9月末・12月末）。四半期表記は『Qx FYyy』で Qx は暦四半期、FYyy はAmazon会計年度。reportDate は決算発表日（米国市場引け後発表のため翌取引日が初の市場反応となる）。","guidance の eps は全四半期 null（Amazon は次Q net sales range + operating income range のみガイドし、EPS の会社ガイドを出さない方針。期待利益は OpInc レンジから示唆する設計）。次Q売上ガイドは会社提示レンジの midpoint。","AWS売上の YoY成長率は AMZN 評価の最重要シグナルで各 event 欄に併記（Q4 FY24 +19% → Q1 FY25 +17% で底打ち → Q2 +17.5% → Q3 +20.2% → Q4 +24% → Q1 FY26 +28% と4Q連続で再加速、Anthropic／Trainium2／3 と Bedrock 需要が背景）。","EPS は GAAP 希薄化後。Anthropic等への株式投資のmark-to-market評価益（Other income/expense）が四半期によりGAAP EPSを大きく上下動させる（特に Q1 FY26 は$16.8B税前益で EPS が +69%ビート見え）。実質収益力を見るときは OpInc / OpInc margin 推移を併読する設計。","実績・会社ガイダンス・セグメント売上は Amazon 公式IR / SEC EDGAR 8-K の一次情報。コンセンサスは CNBC(LSEG) / Reuters / StreetAccount を主、Investing.com / Seeking Alpha 等を補助に突き合わせた代表値（±数%の誤差を含む）。当時の次Q売上コンセンサスで Koyfin/LSEG から取りにくい四半期は x-search（Grok）の発表前後の投稿中央値で補完。","株価は Yahoo Finance / stockanalysis.com 等の日次終値（regular session close、未調整 close）で照合。決算は米国市場引け後（AMC）発表のため reportClose は発表当日のRTH close、nextClose は翌取引日のRTH close。Q1 FY25 は AH では大きく下げたが翌日 RTH では概ね横ばい-0.12%に戻した実例で、AH 反応と RTH 反応が大きく乖離する銘柄である点に留意。","2022年6月に20:1株式分割済み（本表全四半期は分割後ベース。率＝ビート率・YoY・騰落率は分割の影響を受けない）。","ガイダンス上振れ率 =（会社の次Q売上ガイド midpoint − 発表当時の次Q売上コンセンサス）÷ コンセンサス × 100。マイナス＝市場期待を下回る会社ガイダンス（Q4 FY24 / Q1 FY25 / Q4 FY25 で発生）。","Capex（主にAWS／AIインフラ）は FY24 ~$83B → FY25 $131.8B → FY26 ~$200B+ と急膨張。Q4 FY25 発表時の FY26 $200B宣言と Q1 FY26 の単Q $44.2B 実績がフリーキャッシュフロー圧迫の主因として継続的に株価反応の重し（または材料）になっている。","注目はQ1 FY26（2026/4/29発表）。AWSが$37.6B（+28% YoY）と15Q高に再々加速し、Q4 FY24の+19%から4Q連続で成長率を引き上げた格好。AWSバックログ$364B、Bedrockトークン量が四半期単独で過去累計超え、Project Rainier（Anthropic専用$11B級データセンター）に加えTrainium2／Graviton／Nitroの自社シリコンが年間ランレート$20B超で三桁%成長と、AI需要×自社シリコンの組み合わせがAWSの成長率を構造的に押し上げた。広告も$17.2B（+24%）でGoogle/Metaを上回るペース。次Q売上ガイド$196.5B（コンセ$188.7B比+4.1%）も大幅上振れ。GAAP EPS$2.78はAnthropic投資のmark-to-market益$16.8B税前を含むため見かけ+69%ビートは過大評価、実質はOpInc推移で見るべき。capex はQ1単Qで$44.2B（PY $25B）でFY26 $200B+ペースを確認、TTM FCFは$1.2B（-95% YoY）まで圧縮。それでも翌日+0.77%と反応が薄かったのは、Q4 FY25発表時にFY26 $200B capexを既に開示済みで市場が織り込み済みだったため。Micron級の評価軸切り替わりではなく『AWS再加速 vs capex/FCF圧迫』のせめぎ合いが続く構図で、次Q（Q2 FY26、2026/7末発表予定）は ①AWS+28%が維持できるか、②OpInc絶対額がcapex減価償却の重しに耐えるか、③Anthropic以外のAI客先深耕の進捗、の3点を見極める段階。",[154,157,160,163,166,169,172,175,178,181,184,187,190,193,196,199,202],{"label":155,"url":156},"Amazon Q4 2024 8-K (SEC EDGAR, ex99.1)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872425000002/amzn-20241231xex991.htm",{"label":158,"url":159},"Amazon Q1 2025 8-K (SEC EDGAR, ex99.1)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001018724/000101872425000034/amzn-20250331xex991.htm",{"label":161,"url":162},"Amazon Q2 2025 earnings release (Amazon IR PDF)","https://s2.q4cdn.com/299287126/files/doc_financials/2025/q2/AMZN-Q2-2025-Earnings-Release.pdf",{"label":164,"url":165},"Amazon Q3 2025 earnings release (Amazon IR PDF)","https://s2.q4cdn.com/299287126/files/doc_financials/2025/q3/AMZN-Q3-2025-Earnings-Release.pdf",{"label":167,"url":168},"Amazon Q4 2025 earnings recap (aboutamazon.com)","https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/company-news/amazon-earnings-q4-2025-report",{"label":170,"url":171},"CNBC: Amazon AMZN Q4 2024 earnings (Feb 6, 2025)","https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/06/amazon-amzn-q4-earnings-report-2024.html",{"label":173,"url":174},"CNBC: AWS Q4 2024 earnings","https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/06/aws-earnings-q4-2024.html",{"label":176,"url":177},"CNBC: Amazon AMZN Q2 2025 earnings (Jul 31, 2025)","https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/31/amazon-amzn-q2-earnings-report-2025.html",{"label":179,"url":180},"CNBC: Amazon AMZN Q3 2025 earnings (Oct 30, 2025)","https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/30/amazon-amzn-q3-earnings-report-2025.html",{"label":182,"url":183},"CIO Dive: AWS revenue jumps to $33B (Q3 2025)","https://www.ciodive.com/news/aws-revenue-jumps-33b/804450/",{"label":185,"url":186},"Nasdaq: Amazon Q4 2025 earnings miss, shares slide on $200B capex plan","https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/amazon-q4-earnings-miss-estimates-shares-slide-200b-capex-plan",{"label":188,"url":189},"Investing.com: Amazon Q4 2025 slides — revenue +14%, AWS +24%","https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/amazon-q4-2025-slides-revenue-jumps-14-aws-growth-accelerates-to-24-93CH-4489269",{"label":191,"url":192},"CNBC: Amazon AMZN Q1 2026 earnings (Apr 29, 2026)","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/amazon-amzn-q1-earnings-report-2026.html",{"label":194,"url":195},"CNBC: AWS Q1 2026 earnings","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/aws-earnings-q1-2026.html",{"label":197,"url":198},"Yahoo Finance: Amazon Q1 2026 earnings beat","https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/amazon-q1-2026-earnings-beat-203149838.html",{"label":200,"url":201},"Seeking Alpha: Amazon Q2 2026 net sales guide $194-$199B / AWS backlog $364B","https://seekingalpha.com/news/4582330-amazon-outlines-q2-net-sales-of-194b-199b-as-aws-reaches-364b-backlog",{"label":203,"url":204},"stockanalysis.com AMZN 概要（株価・時価総額・予想）","https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amzn/",{"date":206,"close":207},"2026-06-25","$227.01","https://log.eurekapu.com/og/pages/general/beat-monitoring-AMZN.png?title=AMZN%20Amazon%20-%20%E3%83%93%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88%E3%83%A2%E3%83%8B%E3%82%BF%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B0&sig=bbe1dfad57c75b15",1782445072716]