[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":362},["ShallowReactive",2],{"triple-beat-AMAT":3,"og-beat-monitoring-AMAT":361},{"ticker":4,"name":5,"description":6,"epsLabel":7,"guidanceLabel":8,"stockLabel":9,"quarters":10,"tableNotes":281,"highlightQuarter":175,"highlightDescription":287,"sources":288,"latestStock":358},"AMAT","Applied Materials","半導体製造装置 (WFE: Wafer Fab Equipment) の世界最大手で、Lam Research・KLA・ASML と並ぶ業界4強の一角。AI/HBM・DRAM・先端ロジック (GAA トランジスタ)・先端パッケージング向け装置の構造需要が成長ドライバーで、中国向け輸出規制が逆風要因。FY24〜FY25 は「実績はビートするが次Qガイドが弱い／中国規制懸念で売られる」パターンが続き、Q3 FY25 (2025/8) では翌日株価が -14% の急落。しかし FY26 入り後は AI/leading-edge 需要のアクセラレーションを根拠に Q1 FY26 で売上ガイドを +9%・Q2 FY26 で +14% 上振れし、CY2026 装置成長見通しを「20%超」→「30%超」へ引き上げる強気サイクルへ転じている。","EPS ($, 非GAAP 希薄化後)","次Q売上ガイド (midpoint, $B)","株価反応 ($)",[11,37,62,84,106,129,151,174,198,218,240,264],{"quarter":12,"reportDate":13,"event":14,"revenue":15,"eps":20,"guidance":24,"stock":33},"Q4 FY23","2023/11/16","売上 $6.72B / 非GAAP EPS $2.12 で街予想 (売上 $6.52B、EPS $1.98) を上回るビート。次Q売上ガイド midpoint $6.47B もコンセンサス $6.34B を上振れ。ただし発表翌日 (11/17) は DOJ による中国関連の刑事捜査報道が嫌気され株価 -4.0% で着地。",{"actual":16,"consensus":17,"beatPct":18,"yoyPct":19},"$6.72 B","$6.52 B",3.1,0,{"actual":21,"consensus":22,"beatPct":23},"$2.12","$1.98",7.1,{"revenue":25,"eps":29},{"company":26,"consensus":27,"beatPct":28},"$6.47 B","$6.34 B",2.1,{"company":30,"consensus":31,"beatPct":32},"$1.90","$1.84",3.3,{"reportClose":34,"nextClose":35,"changePct":36},"$154.81","$148.59",-4,{"quarter":38,"reportDate":39,"event":40,"revenue":41,"eps":45,"guidance":49,"stock":58},"Q1 FY24","2024/2/15","売上 $6.71B (前年比横ばい) / 非GAAP EPS $2.13 で街予想 (売上 $6.44B、EPS $1.91) を上回るビート。次Q売上ガイド midpoint $6.50B も事前コンセンサス $6.31B を +3.0% 上振れ。AI/先端ロジック需要を強調する強気内容が好感され、翌日株価 +6.4% で急騰。",{"actual":42,"consensus":43,"beatPct":44,"yoyPct":19},"$6.71 B","$6.44 B",4.2,{"actual":46,"consensus":47,"beatPct":48},"$2.13","$1.91",11.5,{"revenue":50,"eps":54},{"company":51,"consensus":52,"beatPct":53},"$6.50 B","$6.31 B",3,{"company":55,"consensus":56,"beatPct":57},"$1.97","$1.79",10.1,{"reportClose":59,"nextClose":60,"changePct":61},"$187.66","$199.57",6.4,{"quarter":63,"reportDate":64,"event":65,"revenue":66,"eps":69,"guidance":73,"stock":80},"Q2 FY24","2024/5/16","売上 $6.65B / 非GAAP EPS $2.09 でいずれも事前コンセンサス (売上 $6.52B、EPS $1.99) を上回るビート。次Q売上ガイド midpoint $6.65B はコンセンサス $6.62B とほぼ同水準、EPS midpoint $2.01 も街予想 $1.98 を僅か上回るに留まり、株価は翌日ほぼ横ばい (-0.9%)。",{"actual":67,"consensus":17,"beatPct":68,"yoyPct":19},"$6.65 B",2,{"actual":70,"consensus":71,"beatPct":72},"$2.09","$1.99",5,{"revenue":74,"eps":77},{"company":67,"consensus":75,"beatPct":76},"$6.62 B",0.5,{"company":78,"consensus":22,"beatPct":79},"$2.01",1.5,{"reportClose":81,"nextClose":82,"changePct":83},"$214.03","$212.08",-0.9,{"quarter":85,"reportDate":86,"event":87,"revenue":88,"eps":92,"guidance":94,"stock":102},"Q3 FY24","2024/8/15","売上 $6.78B (+5% YoY) / 非GAAP EPS $2.12 でいずれも街予想 (売上 $6.67B、EPS $2.02) をビート。次Q売上ガイド midpoint $6.93B もコンセンサス $6.89B を上回ったが、ICAPS (古い世代) の弱さが嫌気され翌日株価 -1.9% で軟調。",{"actual":89,"consensus":90,"beatPct":91,"yoyPct":72},"$6.78 B","$6.67 B",1.6,{"actual":21,"consensus":93,"beatPct":72},"$2.02",{"revenue":95,"eps":99},{"company":96,"consensus":97,"beatPct":98},"$6.93 B","$6.89 B",0.6,{"company":100,"consensus":46,"beatPct":101},"$2.18",2.3,{"reportClose":103,"nextClose":104,"changePct":105},"$211.83","$207.90",-1.9,{"quarter":107,"reportDate":108,"event":109,"revenue":110,"eps":114,"guidance":116,"stock":125},"Q4 FY24","2024/11/14","売上 $7.05B (+5% YoY) / 非GAAP EPS $2.32 で街予想 (売上 $6.97B、EPS $2.18) を上回るビート。ただし次Q売上ガイド midpoint $7.15B はコンセンサス $7.22B を下回り、中国向け売上が縮小するとの示唆が嫌気され翌日 (11/15) -9.2% の大幅安。",{"actual":111,"consensus":112,"beatPct":113,"yoyPct":72},"$7.05 B","$6.97 B",1.1,{"actual":115,"consensus":100,"beatPct":61},"$2.32",{"revenue":117,"eps":121},{"company":118,"consensus":119,"beatPct":120},"$7.15 B","$7.22 B",-1,{"company":122,"consensus":123,"beatPct":124},"$2.29","$2.28",0.4,{"reportClose":126,"nextClose":127,"changePct":128},"$186.00","$168.88",-9.2,{"quarter":130,"reportDate":131,"event":132,"revenue":133,"eps":137,"guidance":140,"stock":147},"Q1 FY25","2025/2/13","売上 $7.17B (+7% YoY) / 非GAAP EPS $2.38 でいずれも街予想 (売上 $7.15B、EPS $2.29) をビート。ただし次Q売上ガイド midpoint $7.10B はコンセンサス $7.21B を下回り、中国向け売上の慎重姿勢が嫌気されて翌日 (2/14) -8.2% の急落。",{"actual":134,"consensus":118,"beatPct":135,"yoyPct":136},"$7.17 B",0.3,7,{"actual":138,"consensus":122,"beatPct":139},"$2.38",3.9,{"revenue":141,"eps":145},{"company":142,"consensus":143,"beatPct":144},"$7.10 B","$7.21 B",-1.5,{"company":146,"consensus":122,"beatPct":124},"$2.30",{"reportClose":148,"nextClose":149,"changePct":150},"$184.27","$169.20",-8.2,{"quarter":152,"reportDate":153,"event":154,"revenue":155,"eps":158,"guidance":162,"stock":170},"Q2 FY25","2025/5/15","売上 $7.10B (+7% YoY) は街予想 $7.12B を僅かに下回るも、非GAAP EPS $2.39 は街予想 $2.31 を 3.5% 上振れ。次Q売上ガイド midpoint $7.20B はコンセンサス $7.19B とほぼ同水準。中国売上見通し懸念で翌日株価 -5.3%。",{"actual":142,"consensus":156,"beatPct":157,"yoyPct":136},"$7.12 B",-0.3,{"actual":159,"consensus":160,"beatPct":161},"$2.39","$2.31",3.5,{"revenue":163,"eps":167},{"company":164,"consensus":165,"beatPct":166},"$7.20 B","$7.19 B",0.1,{"company":168,"consensus":115,"beatPct":169},"$2.35",1.3,{"reportClose":171,"nextClose":172,"changePct":173},"$174.75","$165.57",-5.3,{"quarter":175,"reportDate":176,"event":177,"revenue":178,"eps":182,"guidance":186,"stock":194},"Q3 FY25","2025/8/14","売上 $7.30B (+8% YoY) / 非GAAP EPS $2.48 でいずれもストリート (売上 $7.21B、EPS $2.36) を大幅にビート。しかし次Q売上ガイド midpoint $6.70B (コンセンサス $7.34B) と EPS $2.11 (コンセンサス $2.39) が大幅にディスアポイントし、中国向け装置の digestion を理由に翌日株価 -14.1% の急落。直近の主要転換点。",{"actual":179,"consensus":143,"beatPct":180,"yoyPct":181},"$7.30 B",1.2,8,{"actual":183,"consensus":184,"beatPct":185},"$2.48","$2.36",5.1,{"revenue":187,"eps":191},{"company":188,"consensus":189,"beatPct":190},"$6.70 B","$7.34 B",-8.7,{"company":192,"consensus":159,"beatPct":193},"$2.11",-11.7,{"reportClose":195,"nextClose":196,"changePct":197},"$188.24","$161.76",-14.1,{"quarter":199,"reportDate":200,"event":201,"revenue":202,"eps":205,"guidance":208,"stock":215},"Q4 FY25","2025/11/13","売上 $6.80B (-3% YoY) / 非GAAP EPS $2.17 でいずれも街予想 (売上 $6.70B、EPS $2.11) を小幅ビート。次Q売上ガイド midpoint $6.85B はコンセンサス $7.25B を下回り、中国規制ヘッドウインド ($110M shippable shortfall を明言) があったものの、ガイダンスは既に低めの市場期待を満たすとして翌日株価は +1.3% で着地。",{"actual":203,"consensus":188,"beatPct":79,"yoyPct":204},"$6.80 B",-3,{"actual":206,"consensus":192,"beatPct":207},"$2.17",2.8,{"revenue":209,"eps":213},{"company":210,"consensus":211,"beatPct":212},"$6.85 B","$7.25 B",-5.5,{"company":100,"consensus":168,"beatPct":214},-7.2,{"reportClose":216,"nextClose":217,"changePct":169},"$223.23","$226.01",{"quarter":219,"reportDate":220,"event":221,"revenue":222,"eps":226,"guidance":229,"stock":236},"Q1 FY26","2026/2/12","売上 $7.01B (-2% YoY、Semi Systems で record DRAM 売上) / 非GAAP EPS $2.38 で街予想 (売上 $6.89B、EPS $2.21) をビート。次Q売上ガイド midpoint $7.65B はコンセンサス $7.01B を +9.1% 上振れする強気で、AI/leading-edge 需要のアクセラレーションを宣言。翌日株価 +8.1% で急騰し、FY25 の弱気サイクルからの転換点に。",{"actual":223,"consensus":97,"beatPct":224,"yoyPct":225},"$7.01 B",1.8,-2,{"actual":138,"consensus":227,"beatPct":228},"$2.21",7.7,{"revenue":230,"eps":233},{"company":231,"consensus":223,"beatPct":232},"$7.65 B",9.1,{"company":234,"consensus":146,"beatPct":235},"$2.64",14.8,{"reportClose":237,"nextClose":238,"changePct":239},"$328.39","$354.91",8.1,{"quarter":241,"reportDate":242,"event":243,"revenue":244,"eps":248,"guidance":252,"stock":261},"Q2 FY26","2026/5/14","売上 $7.91B (+11% YoY、四半期最高) / 非GAAP EPS $2.86 で街予想 (売上 $7.68B、EPS $2.68) を 4 連続でビート。粗利率 50.0% は 25 年超ぶり最高水準。次Q売上ガイド midpoint $8.95B はコンセンサス $7.85B を +14.0% 上振れ、CY2026 装置成長見通しを「20%超」→「30%超」へ引き上げ。ただし事前期待が高くなっており翌日株価は -0.9% の小幅安、出尽くしの様相。",{"actual":245,"consensus":246,"beatPct":53,"yoyPct":247},"$7.91 B","$7.68 B",11,{"actual":249,"consensus":250,"beatPct":251},"$2.86","$2.68",6.7,{"revenue":253,"eps":257},{"company":254,"consensus":255,"beatPct":256},"$8.95 B","$7.85 B",14,{"company":258,"consensus":259,"beatPct":260},"$3.36","$2.78",20.9,{"reportClose":262,"nextClose":263,"changePct":83},"$440.56","$436.62",{"quarter":265,"reportDate":266,"isForecast":267,"event":268,"revenue":269,"eps":273,"guidance":275,"stock":280},"Q3 FY26","2026/8/13",true,"2026/8/13 AMC 発表予定。2026/6/22時点のアナリスト予想は当期売上 $9.00 B / 非GAAP EPS $3.38、次Q (4Q 2026) 売上 $9.42 B / EPS $3.61（Koyfin 集約コンセンサス）。",{"actual":270,"consensus":271,"beatPct":272,"yoyPct":272},"n/a","$9.00 B",null,{"actual":270,"consensus":274,"beatPct":272},"$3.38",{"revenue":276,"eps":278},{"company":270,"consensus":277,"beatPct":272},"$9.42 B",{"company":270,"consensus":279,"beatPct":272},"$3.61",{"reportClose":270,"nextClose":270,"changePct":272},[282,283,284,285,286],"Q3 FY26（2026/8/13 発表予定）はアナリスト予想のみ先行入力。当期 売上$9.00 B / EPS$3.38、次Q (4Q 2026) 売上$9.42 B / EPS$3.61 はいずれも 2026/6/22 時点で参照可能な Koyfin 集約コンセンサス。会社ガイダンス・実績・反応は発表後に更新する。","AMAT は 10 月末締めの会計年度 (FY24 = 2023/11〜2024/10、FY25 = 2024/11〜2025/10、FY26 = 2025/11〜2026/10)。各四半期は決算発表月を基準に命名 (例: 2026/2/12 発表は Q1 FY26)。","売上・非GAAP EPS の実績は AMAT 公式 SEC 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release) を一次ソース。コンセンサスは Zacks / Investing.com / CNBC / Sherwood / Stocktwits / TIKR / GuruFocus を複数突き合わせ。古い期 (Q4 FY23、Q1 FY24) の guidance コンセンサスは記事ベースの概算値。","株価終値は Koyfin internal API (p_candle_range, 2023/11〜2026/6 連続レンジ) の正規取引終値を採用。changePct は (nextClose / reportClose - 1) × 100 で再計算しているため、初出メディアの記事数値と±1〜3pt の差が出る四半期あり (記事は時間外/寄付/前場引け等の参照点が混在)。","AMAT は 2002 年 4 月の 2-for-1 以降、株式分割を行っていないため期間調整なし。","Q3 FY25 (2025/8/14) は AMAT のストーリー上、直近最大の転換点。実績ベースでは売上 $7.30B / 非GAAP EPS $2.48 と過去最高を更新し、いずれもコンセンサスを 1〜5% 上回るビートだったが、次Q (Q4 FY25) のガイダンスを売上 $6.70B / EPS $2.11 と発表 (コンセンサスは売上 $7.34B / EPS $2.39)。中国向け装置需要の digestion と「leading-edge 顧客の非線形な需要パターン」を理由に大幅な下振れガイドを出したことで、翌日株価は -14.1% の急落 ($188.24→$161.76)。これ以降、FY25 後半は「実績ビートはするがガイドが弱い・中国懸念で売られる」パターンが鮮明化し、Q4 FY25 までこの構図が継続。FY26 入り (Q1 FY26、2026/2/12) で「売上ガイド +9.1% 上振れ + 株価 +8.1% 急騰」へ転換するまでの直近弱気サイクルの起点として、ストーリーの中心に据えるべき四半期。",[289,292,295,298,301,304,307,310,313,316,319,322,325,328,331,334,337,340,343,346,349,352,355],{"label":290,"url":291},"AMAT Q4 FY23 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex.99.1, 2023/11/16)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000006951/000000695123000035/exhibit991q42023earningsre.htm",{"label":293,"url":294},"AMAT Q1 FY24 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex.99.1, 2024/2/15)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000006951/000000695124000006/exhibit991q12024earningsre.htm",{"label":296,"url":297},"AMAT Q2 FY24 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex.99.1, 2024/5/16)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000006951/000000695124000017/exhibit991q22024earningsre.htm",{"label":299,"url":300},"AMAT Q3 FY24 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex.99.1, 2024/8/15)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000006951/000000695124000026/exhibit991q32024earningsre.htm",{"label":302,"url":303},"AMAT Q4 FY24 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex.99.1, 2024/11/14)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000006951/000000695124000037/exhibit991q42024earningsre.htm",{"label":305,"url":306},"AMAT Q1 FY25 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex.99.1, 2025/2/13)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000006951/000000695125000005/exhibit991q12025earningsre.htm",{"label":308,"url":309},"AMAT Q2 FY25 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex.99.1, 2025/5/15)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000006951/000000695125000017/exhibit991q22025earningsre.htm",{"label":311,"url":312},"AMAT Q3 FY25 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex.99.1, 2025/8/14)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000006951/000000695125000032/exhibit991q32025earningsre.htm",{"label":314,"url":315},"AMAT Q4 FY25 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex.99.1, 2025/11/13)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000006951/000162828025051998/exhibit991q42025earningsre.htm",{"label":317,"url":318},"AMAT Q1 FY26 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex.99.1, 2026/2/12)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000006951/000162828026007661/exhibit991q12026earningsre.htm",{"label":320,"url":321},"AMAT Q2 FY26 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex.99.1, 2026/5/14)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000006951/000162828026035071/exhibit991q22026earningsre.htm",{"label":323,"url":324},"Zacks: AMAT Q4 FY23 Beat (2023/11/17)","https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2186215/applied-materials-amat-q4-earnings-beat-sales-down-yy",{"label":326,"url":327},"Zacks: AMAT Q4 FY24 Tops Estimates (2024/11/14)","https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2370689/applied-materials-amat-tops-q4-earnings-and-revenue-estimates",{"label":329,"url":330},"Sherwood: AMAT Q4 FY25 China export restrictions","https://sherwood.news/markets/applied-materials-q4-2025-quarterly-results-ai-china-export-restrictions/",{"label":332,"url":333},"Sherwood: AMAT Q2 FY26 strong guidance","https://sherwood.news/markets/applied-materials-semicap-q2-2026-earnings/",{"label":335,"url":336},"Stocktwits: AMAT plummets 14% Aug 15, 2025","https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/why-did-applied-materials-stock-plummet-14-percent/chsPqYoRdfj",{"label":338,"url":339},"TIKR: AMAT Q1 FY25 (Feb 2025)","https://www.tikr.com/blog/applied-materials-stock-jumps-8-after-q1-earnings-beat-and-strong-q2-outlook",{"label":341,"url":342},"TIKR: AMAT Q2 FY26 (May 2026)","https://www.tikr.com/blog/applied-materials-beat-q2-estimates-and-raised-its-2026-outlook-the-stock-dipped-heres-what-investors-should-know",{"label":344,"url":345},"Investing.com: AMAT Q1 FY26 (Feb 2026)","https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-applied-materials-q1-2026-beats-eps-forecast-stock-slips-93CH-4504178",{"label":347,"url":348},"Investing.com: AMAT Q4 FY25 (Nov 2025)","https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-applied-materials-q4-2025-sees-earnings-beat-stock-dips-93CH-4357421",{"label":350,"url":351},"Stocktitan: AMAT Q2 FY26 record revenue","https://www.stocktitan.net/news/AMAT/applied-materials-announces-second-quarter-2026-y205hrnxvpxb.html",{"label":353,"url":354},"Motley Fool: Why AMAT slid Nov 15, 2024","https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/15/why-applied-materials-stock-is-sliding-today/",{"label":356,"url":357},"InvestorPlace: AMAT DOJ probe Nov 17, 2023","https://investorplace.com/2023/11/the-real-reason-applied-materials-amat-stock-is-down-today/",{"date":359,"close":360},"2026-06-18","$617.11","https://log.eurekapu.com/og/pages/general/beat-monitoring-AMAT.png?title=AMAT%20Applied%20Materials%20-%20%E3%83%93%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88%E3%83%A2%E3%83%8B%E3%82%BF%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B0&sig=d4a5edf6323d72be",1782176345795]